Monthly Archives: February 2015

Re-writing The Climate History of Iceland

In this post I examine the records of eight climate stations on Iceland and find the following:

There is wholesale over writing and adjustment of raw temperature records, especially pre-1970 with an overwhelming tendency to cool the past that makes the present appear to be anomalously warm.

In the 1960s, Iceland (and the whole N Atlantic) experienced a run of very cold years caused by extreme atmospheric pressure differentials linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Many of these cold records appear to have been systematically deleted in V3.1 with the effect of all but removing this well-documented event from Icelandic climate history. Continue reading

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Temperature Adjustments in Australia

Homogenisation of climate records changes virtually everything and nothing at the same time. The objective of homogenisation is to remove non-climate artefacts. Wholesale re-writing of the temperature history everywhere is not consistent with the stated aims. Homogenisation appears to have added warming or cooling to records where neither existed. Homogenisation may also have removed real climate signal. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , , , | 59 Comments

Blowout week 60

The main local story this week is the prospective closure of Longannet, my local 2.4 GW coal fired power station. The SNP, Scottish independence party, is seeking assurance that we can become dependent on English electricity. Elsewhere snow storms in the USA, Turkey and The Middle East have been making headlines. And there is rumour of Congressional hearings into adjusting temperature records. Continue reading

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Homogenisation Adjustments to Temperature Records, Southern Hemisphere

It is maintained that homogenisation does not significantly distort the global temperature record although it has added about 0.3˚C warming, mainly through cooling the distant past. If homogenisation makes such little difference, why do it? This simply serves to sow suspicion in sceptical minds. Whilst at one level I can accept the need to correct records where a justifiable cause is identified and understood. I find it equally hard to accept that automated wholesale adjustment is justified. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

Busting the myth buster 2: It’s the Sun

This is the second post in the series rebutting John Cook’s 10 most used climate myths at Skeptical Science. Climate myth 2 “Its the Sun”.

So what’s up? Why is this not a climate myth? The simple explanation lies in the fact that the sceptic argument is normally founded on solar magnetic activity and not on TSI at all. And so once again Cook misses, misrepresents or misunderstands the sceptic argument completely. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , , , | 15 Comments

Oil Price Crash Update

The price plunge seems to have reversed, at least for the time being (more on that below). But the most stunning data is the free fall in US oil drilling rigs shown in Figure 1, down 553 (34%) from the October top. The IEA also published their Oil Market Report early this month, on 10th February, reporting oil supplies were down 235,000 bpd in January, mainly in OPEC countries Iraq and Libya. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , | 13 Comments

Blowout Week 59

Stories below the fold, including whither oil prices, is OPEC winning, blackouts in S. Africa, nuclear in Egypt, China discovers gas in disputed waters, UK and Austria at loggerheads over Hinkley, Groningen gas curtailment, Germany to legalize fracking and how climate change will cause megadroughts in the US. Continue reading

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Busting the myth buster 1: Climate’s changed before

The summary rebuttal to John Cook is that Earth’s climate is always changing by natural causes. The glacial – interglacial cycles are subject to large swings in temperature and climate. The climate science community needs to present the evidence for the split between natural and manmade warming for the period 1975 to 1998. Simply attributing it all to CO2 is not scientific. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , , | 45 Comments

Gridwatch UK January 2015

This is the second in the series chronicling the electricity generation statistics for the UK. December 2014 is here. Wind had a good month and blew consistently strongly for much of the time. But for a four day period 19th to 22nd January we had an Arctic anticyclone, cold weather and the wind hardly blew at all. Combined cycle gas turbines provided most of the load balancing service throughout the month and the back up power during the 4 day wind lull. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 12 Comments

Green Thinking – is it science?

I have struggled with Green Thinking for many years, and in particular the repeated claims that it is embodied in science. This post explores the scientific credentials of Green Thinkers. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , | 84 Comments

How Hemispheric Homogenization Hikes Global Warming

About 800 carefully selected raw surface temperature records are summarised in this post and compared with GISS. About 500 come from the Northern Hemisphere and 300 from the Southern Hemisphere.

The raw record reconstruction for the Northern Hemisphere matches closely with the GISS model for the Northern Hemisphere. The Southern hemisphere does not. The application of “homogenisation” to the Southern Hemisphere records has added about 0.6˚C warming to GISS that is absent in the raw temperature data. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 58

A renewed focus on European energy security and renewables below the fold, including the EU’s proposed Energy Union, two new pumped hydro plants in UK, renewables to the rescue in South Africa, more problems for Hinkley, yet another wind power record and does anyone want to buy a used German power plant? Plus stories on whether nuclear can survive in a liberalized market, falling coal prices and how global warming is causing an infestation of pink sea slugs. Continue reading

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The Horrors of Homogenization

Raw temperature records are homogenized because they are all assumed to be distorted to a greater or lesser extent by station moves, equipment replacement, time-of-observation changes and/or physical changes in the vicinity of the station and therefore not suitable for use in their raw state. There are, however, two problems with this assumption.

The first is that many raw temperature records show no sign of distortion. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , | 38 Comments

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

In summary, for the six months September to February snow area has actually been increasing 1967 to 2014! That has to be a surprise. And for the six months March to August snow area has been decreasing. The trends are generally very gradual and barely significant. But what the data show is that the northern hemisphere is getting snowier winters accompanied by more rapid melt in spring and summer. The latter is not surprising since we know that the lower troposphere is warming (at least we think we know that to be the case). Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , | 69 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics – February 2015

The main oil production changes from November to December are:

World total liquids up 150,000 bpd
OPEC up 80,000 bpd
N America up 80,000 bpd
Russia and FSU up 180,000 bpd
Europe down 70,000 bpd (compared with December 2013)
Asia down 60,000 bpd Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 11 Comments

Wind Power, Denmark, and the Island of Denmark.

With 33% of the electricity it generated in 2013 coming from wind Denmark is a world leader in wind power – a remarkable achievement considering the difficulty of integrating Denmark’s highly erratic and sometimes overwhelming wind output with the small Danish grid. (Figure 1). Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , | 69 Comments

Blowout Week 57

Has it bottomed out? Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | 11 Comments