Monthly Archives: March 2015

The Hunt For Global Warming: Antarctica

14 stations distributed around the edge and in the centre of the continent show a warming trend of +0.35˚C since 1954. If the regression is started in 1969, the trend is completely flat. There is scant evidence of warming on the main Antarctic continent for 42 years.

This observation does not include 3 stations from the Antarctic Peninsula that clearly belong to a separate climatic regime and are therefore treated separately. These three stations show warming of +3˚C since 1944. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , | 31 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics: April 2015

Global oil production is declining slowly but remains just above its long-term trend. Just over 94.04 Mbpd was produced in February.

The recovery in the oil price in February reversed in March and WTI has tested its January lows. Spreading conflict in the Middle East adds further complexity to the price dynamic.

The plunge in US oil rig count has slowed significantly although still falling slowly. This may signal a new phase of the oil price war that is discussed at the end of this post. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 17 Comments

Blowout Week 65

This week we feature predictions, which as the philosopher Yogi Berra once observed are tough to make, especially about the future.

More on OPEC and oil below the fold, plus the growing Middle East nuclear (arms?) race, natural gas in Mexico, blackouts in Holland, the world dragging its feet on emissions reduction pledges, the Longannet closure, Scotland misses its emissions target again, problems with renewables in California and how climate change may turn women into prostitutes. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , | 46 Comments

The German Grid and the Recent Solar Eclipse

The solar eclipse of March 20th, 2015 and the havoc it threatened to wreak on the German grid generated a lot of portentous web coverage before it happened.

But was the eclipse really an “extreme challenge” that “stressed the power system”? And what does it tell us, if anything, about the Energiewende? Let us examine the data. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 14 Comments

The Oil Price Crash and Economic Slow Down in China

Commenter Javier sent me a collection of 10 charts that he had collected from various internet sources together with his commentary that forms the basis of this joint-post. These charts tell a clear story of a major economic slowdown in China. This most certainly will be implicated in the ongoing oil price weakness. The $10,000 question is will China make a cyclical rebound like it has done in the past? Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , | 35 Comments

The Worst of BEST

This post follows up my recent posts on homogenisation and temperatures in central South America focussed on Paraguay. I am more specifically trying to gain insight to how the Berkley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) record shows warming across the whole of South America while the raw records show a mixture of warming, flat and cooling records. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , | 45 Comments

Blowout Week 64

This week we feature Germany, which has successfully weathered the recent solar eclipse that threatened to play havoc with the German grid:

More stories below the fold, including OPEC and its victims, Longannet, Superstorm Sandy and sea level rise, progess at Fukushima, Scots want more wind power, the coming wave of bankruptcies in coal, the Royal Society’s pronouncements on climate change challenged, Norwegian pension funds and how Al Gore wants to put a price on climate denial.

Continue reading

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The Hunt for Global Warming: South America

In summary, GHCN V2 records from 25 climate stations selected by the NASA GISS platform from southern Argentina, Chile and the Falkland Islands produce a completely flat time-temperature anomaly trend. I have succeeded again in not finding evidence for global warming in the southern hemisphere. The GHCN v3 homogenisation adjustments vary individual stations by up to ±2˚C and follow the same robotic style of exact decimal fraction adjustments seen else where. In this case, these adjustments do add warming of the order 0.4˚C since 1888. GHCN V3 records and temperature reconstructions based upon them are to be avoided at all costs. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , | 54 Comments

Probing the Puzzle of Paraguayan Temperatures

So where does all this leave us? It leaves us unable to say whether the Paraguayan records are cooling biased or not, and therefore unable to prove that the warming adjustments applied to them by BEST, GISS and NCDC are invalid (although if they are valid it’s for the wrong reasons; but that would have to be the subject of a separate post). How do we resolve this uncertainty, if in fact it can be resolved? And how do we treat the Paraguay records if it can’t? Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , , , | 41 Comments

Renewable Energy: The Most Expensive Policy Disaster in Modern British History

In a new report Central Planning with Market Features: how renewable subsidies destroyed the UK electricity market, published by the Centre for Policy Studies on Wednesday 18 March, Rupert Darwall shows that recent energy policy represents the biggest expansion of state power since the nationalisations of the 1940s and 1950s – and is on course to be the most expensive domestic policy disaster in modern British history. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , | 47 Comments

Middle East OPEC Oil Rig Count Jumps 14%

As if to rub salt in the wounds of the US shale industry, Middle East OPEC oil rig count has jumped by 19 rigs to 155 units in February 2015 setting a new rig count record for the region. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 11 Comments

Blowout Week 63

Expanded coal use in India and Japan, solar eclipse to wreak havoc with the German grid, OPEC’s latest pronouncements, 100% renewables planned for Hawaii, Mitsubishi to commercialize solar power from space, more oil jobs predicted in UK, a California solar farm that floats on sewage and how not even the dead are safe from the ravages of climate change. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , | 42 Comments

The Iceland Meteorological Office Versus GHCN V2

In this post the raw temperature records for 7 Icelandic climate stations as reported by the Iceland Meteorological Office (IMO) are compared with the equivalent records archived by GHCN as V2, presumed previously to be raw temperature records. What should have been a straight forward exercise is in fact a total mess.

At face value, something appears to have gone catastrophically wrong with the GHCN V2 archive which cannot be viewed as raw data in its current form. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , , , , | 9 Comments

The Hunt for Global Warming: Southern Africa Part 2

This post follows on from Part 1 where a discussion about urban heating was left unresolved in the comments.

Flicking through many southern African temperature records I have observed two main trends. One is mainly flat, the other is clearly warming. I believed that rural records (towns with <10,000 inhabitants) displayed flat trends while urban records may be flat OR show warming. The theory I want to test in this post is that all warming in southern Africa is linked to urban heating. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , , | 21 Comments

Blowout Week 62

Drawing one of the strongest links yet between global warming and human conflict, researchers said Monday that an extreme drought in Syria between 2006 and 2009 was most likely due to climate change, and that the drought was a factor in the violent uprising that began there in 2011. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , | 39 Comments

The Hunt For Global Warming: Southern Africa

Time – temperature series for 26 selected climate stations in southern Africa are presented. The stations are spread from Capetown to Zanzibar. The mean result for GHCN V2 (unadjusted) is a flat temperature record from 1880 to 2011. The data seem to record the mid-1970s cooling recognised in Central Australian records and overall the results are closely aligned with Central Australia. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , , | 26 Comments

Homogenizing the World

A few weeks ago I put up a post on how the homogeneity adjustments applied by GISS to raw surface temperature records increase warming at the hemispheric and global scale. In this post I extend the review to include the homogeneity adjustments applied by NCDC, CRU and BEST and re-evaluate GISS using a series which is more relevant than the “meteorological station only” series I used last time. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , , , , , | 56 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics: March 2015

World total liquids down 40,000 bpd
OPEC down 240,000 bpd
N America down 10,000 bpd
Russia and FSU down 70,000 bpd
UK and Norway down 40,000 bpd (compared with January 2014)
Asia up 60,000 bpd Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 12 Comments

My Enquiry to GHCN

There is a fair amount public concern about the veracity of the official temperature records that are used by many governments and the United Nations to guide energy policy and the allocation of $trillions in energy infrastructure. I would therefore be very grateful if you could arrange for a senior official at GHCN to answer the questions detailed above so that public concern may be put to rest. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , | 22 Comments

Blowout week 61

Roger and I are both otherwise engaged this weekend and so no time for the regular blowout. Instead I bring a single story from the Canadian Globe and Mail. Reporter Eric Reguly was in Aberdeen last week. I helped arrange … Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , | 20 Comments