Monthly Archives: September 2015

Oil Production Vital Statistics September 2015

With momentous events unfolding on the World stage, the oil market continues to evolve at a glacial pace. Global total liquids production was 96.29 Mbpd in August, down 630,000 bpd from the June peak. But with over-supply running at over 3 Mbpd during the second quarter, there is still a long way to go to rebalance the system. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , | 16 Comments

UK Weather Trends since 1998

UK “scientists” of all sorts who attribute observed changes to UK environment to climate change may have some explaining to do. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , | 12 Comments

Blowout week 91

At the top of the news this week is the VW diesel emissions scandal, which among other things draws attention to the failure of attempts to cut carbon emissions via mass conversion of vehicles to “clean diesel”. Continue reading

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Urban Heat Islands – A Different Way of Looking at Urban Warming

Urban warming impacts are usually evaluated by comparing temperature gradients in urban areas with temperature gradients in adjacent rural areas. This post approaches the question from a different perspective. Instead of looking at urban warming per se it looks at the urban heat islands that cause it. How common are they? How variable are they? How large are the areas they cover? What are their amplitudes? Knowing the answers to these questions could help improve our understanding of how much of the increase in global surface air temperature over the period of instrumental record might have been caused by urban warming. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , | 8 Comments

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Temperature Record

The AMO fluctuates between cold and warm phases on a quasi 66 year cycle, 33 years warming followed by 33 years cooling, and is modulated by strengthening and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) [1]. The AMO has been in warm phase since around 1995 with consequences for climate in the circum N Atlantic domain. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Political commentary | Tagged , , , , , | 37 Comments

Another Visit to El Hierro

An analysis of the El Hierro island electric data found on the Red Eléctrica de España site for the period from June 26 to August 31, 2015 shows that the renewable contributions have covered 49.5 % of the electric demand of the island. It also shows that with the present wind plus storage system this renewable fraction can’t exceed 80.1%. Neither the capacity of the smaller reservoir of the pumping system, the power of the pumps, nor their efficiencies appears to be the limiting factor. Increasing the active wind power appears as the most effective option to reach a higher renewable fraction. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , | 13 Comments

Blowout Week 90

The oil wars are coming down to the wire. More on the travails of US shale oil below the fold, plus a looming shortage of US natural gas, the forthcoming uranium boom, China burning more coal than thought, nuclear plant decommissioning problems in Germany, more threats to the UK grid, Scotland’s SMAUG anti-fracking group, Australia’s greens unhappy with Turnbull, Ireland missing its renewables target, the Paris climate talks, climate scientists demand that skeptics be prosecuted, killer germs from melting Arctic Ice and mutant fish from Fukushima. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 38 Comments

The Diverging Surface Thermometer and Satellite Temperature Records Again

Satellite and surface thermometer data agree over the oceans. They used to agree better over land until HadCRUT4 supplanted HadCRUT3, ending the pause and causing land surface thermometers to diverge from the satellite data sets. Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , , , | 27 Comments

CO2 Emissions – Who Are Europe’s “Dirty Men”?

In his recent Emissions Reduction, Renewables and Recession post Euan Mearns made the following statement: “In terms of CO2 reduction (i.e. lack of it), Poland, Norway and Germany are the dirty men of Europe.” As we shall see Euan’s claim is broadly correct, but the success a country has had or not had in reducing its CO2 emissions is only one of a number of indicators that can be used to gauge its carbon dirtiness (or cleanliness). Here I use five different ones to rank 26 European countries by carbon cleanliness/dirtiness to identify who the dirty men of Europe really are. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , , | 15 Comments

Corbyn in La La Land

Britain providing international leadership on climate change and the socialisation of our energy supply leading an end to the era of fossil fuels. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , | 71 Comments

The Diverging Surface Thermometer and Satellite Temperature Records

With the Paris climate and global energy system talks looming there is a lot of interest in whether or not the Earth’s atmosphere (lower troposphere to be precise) is still warming. For years now, there has been talk of “a pause” in warming since 1998. But now, just in time, there is a flurry of stories about record temperatures being set in England (during one of the coldest summers in recent times), and that 2015 is heading to be the warmest year ever (since records began). Continue reading

Posted in Climate change | Tagged , , , , , , , | 34 Comments

Blowout week 89

Problems for Gazprom, E.ON not to spin off nuclear after all, Hinkley “not a bottomless pit”, Japan burns record coal, Paris Climate Conference falling short, radiocarbon dates may be wrong, Scotland to subsidize EVs, Southern Ocean absorbing more carbon, Worthington on fracking, China to build UK nuclear plant, what happens if the world burns all its fossil fuels, two notable advances in PV technology and the low carbon Climatarian diet. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

CO2 Emissions Reductions – What History Teaches Us

Historical data show that if a country wishes to cut its CO2 emissions by a meaningful amount it has two options that can be guaranteed to work – expand nuclear or reduce energy consumption. There are as yet no clear instances of a country achieving significant CO2 reductions by expanding intermittent renewable energy. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 50 Comments

Time for the Tories to Repeal The 2008 Climate Change Act

Doug Brodie says to Tory MPs in an email:
Why the Climate Change Act should be Repealed

I am a retired engineer who is horrified at how climate change political correctness is leading our country into electricity blackouts and economic decline, all for marginal climate and sustainability benefit. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , | 152 Comments

CO2 Emissions Reduction, Renewables and Recession

EU CO2 emissions have fallen by 17% since 2008. Does this vindicate the energy policy mandating 20% of total energy from renewables by 2020? For member countries, a comparison of the per capita wind + solar installed capacity in 2014 with the CO2 reduction in each country 2008-2014 has no correlation (R2 = 0.01). At face value, installing wind and solar devices appears to make no difference to CO2 emissions reduction. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , | 41 Comments

Blowout week 88

In this week’s bumper-sized Blowout we await further developments on oil prices and OPEC and feature instead the future of renewable energy. We begin with the city of Peterborough, whose attempts to develop solar and wind power recently came to a grinding halt. Is Peterborough’s experience a sign of things to come elsewhere in the world? Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 28 Comments

EU Renewable Energy Targets: The Compliance Statistics are Suspect

This post examines EU renewable energy targets and how the various member states are doing in meeting the targets agreed for 2020. It has been found that the compliance data published by Eurostat does not agree with the raw Eurostat or BP statistics. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , | 59 Comments

El Hierro Revisited

In November last year I wrote a post on the Gorona del Viento plant on the island of El Hierro in the Canaries, an innovative renewable energy project that uses a pumped hydro system to supply dispatchable power to the grid and surplus power from a wind farm to keep the pumped hydro reservoirs topped up. Gorona del Viento was in the news at the time because it had just been commissioned and was being hailed as an example of how renewable energy could be made to supply 100% of energy needs on a remote island. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , | 79 Comments