This week’s lead story features job cuts – but not in oil and gas. Australia has decided that since the science of climate change is now settled it doesn’t need as many climate scientists:
Sydney Morning Herald: Climate science to be gutted as CSIRO swings jobs axe
Fears that some of Australia’s most important climate research institutions will be gutted under a Turnbull government have been realised with deep job cuts for scientists. The cuts were flagged in November, just a week before the Paris climate summit began, with key divisions told to prepare lists of job cuts or to find new ways to raise revenue. “Climate will be all gone, basically,” one senior scientist said before the announcement. In the email sent out to staff on Thursday morning, CSIRO’s chief executive Larry Marshall indicated that, since climate change had been established, further work in the area would be a reduced priority. “CSIRO pioneered climate research,” Dr Marshall said. “Our climate models are among the best in the world and our measurements honed those models to prove global climate change,” he said. “That question has been answered, and the new question is what do we do about it, and how can we find solutions for the climate we will be living with?”
Stories below the fold include the trials and tribulations of Saudi Arabia and OPEC, US O&G company ratings cut, Obama proposes $10/bbl tax on US O&G companies, Spain presses EC to save its coal industry, UK and German emissions fall, Hinkley financing concerns spread to Wylfa, Fiddler’s Ferry closure, the world’s largest wind farm, energy storage finally poised for a breakthrough, the warmest January on record in the lower troposphere, a solar/wind powered street light that sends out disaster warnings, charges your cell phone and kills mosquitos all at the same time and how climate change causes depressed dogs.
Telegraph: Saudis told to embrace austerity as debt defaults loom
Saudi Arabia faces years of tough austerity as the worst oil price crash in the modern history forces the kingdom to make radical cuts to government largesse, the International Monetary Fund has warned. The world’s largest producer of crude oil will need to “transform” its economy away from oil revenues, which make up more than 80pc of the government’s wealth, according to Masood Ahmed, head of the Middle East department at the IMF. He urged the kingdom to reform its generous system of oil subsidies and introduce a host of new taxes, including consumption levies such as VAT. During the world’s last major oil price crash in 1986, 17 out of 25 of the developing world’s major oil producers defaulted on their debts, according to research from Oxford Economics. Debt mountains in producer nations ballooned by 40pc of GDP on average.
The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market and drive out rivals, boosting their own output to 10.6m barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn. If the aim was to choke the US shale industry, the Saudis have misjudged badly, just as they misjudged the growing shale threat at every stage for eight years. “It is becoming apparent that non-OPEC producers are not as responsive to low oil prices as had been thought, at least in the short-run,” said the Saudi central bank in its latest stability report. “The main impact has been to cut back on developmental drilling of new oil wells, rather than slowing the flow of oil from existing wells. This requires more patience,” it said. One Saudi expert was blunter. “The policy hasn’t worked and it will never work,” he said.
Investment in new oil and gas projects plunged 20pc in 2015 and energy companies pull back even further this year, experts at UBS said. The delay between investment and production in the energy sector means this is “likely to hit the market around the end of the decade”, the analysts added. The 75pc collapse in oil prices since summer 2014 has slashed profits at oil firms, which have been forced to axe jobs and postpone putting money into new projects. In addition to pre-serving cashflow, UBS said companies could be delaying investment decisions in order to take advantage of the deflationary environment to rework projects to reduce costs and improve efficiencies. Projects approved between 2010-2014, when oil traded at $100 a barrel, will add to the global glut in the near future, but the current investment climate will take its toll on supply beyond 2018. UBS said: “There already looks to be a 4m barrel per day production ‘hole’ appearing, which we believe will be difficult to offset.”
The global oil industry is caught in a self-feeding downward spiral as falling prices cause producers to boost output even further in a scramble to service $3 trillion of dollar debt, the world’s top watchdog has warned. The Bank for International Settlements fears that a perverse dynamic is at work where energy companies in Brazil, Russia, China and parts of the US shale belt are increasing production in defiance of normal market logic, leading to a bad “feedback-loop” that is sucking the whole sector into a destructive vortex.“Lower prices have not removed excess capacity from the market, but instead may have exacerbated it. Production has been ramped up, rather than curtailed,” said Jaime Caruana, the general manager of the Swiss-based club for central bankers. The findings raise serious questions about the strategy of Saudi Arabia and the core Opec states as they flood the global crude market to knock out rivals in a cut-throat battle for export share. The process of attrition may take far longer and do more damage than originally supposed.
Oil prices have whipsawed back and forth over the past two weeks, largely due to the rise and fall of expectations that OPEC might call an emergency meeting. Comments from several Russian oil executives and government officials sent oil prices surging at the end of January. Then prices retraced their gains when officials from OPEC dismissed the stories as just rumors. Nothing had changed, OPEC officials argued, even though some people in Russia were hinting at a meeting. But the rumors persist. The latest fuel to the rumor fire is the fact that now six OPEC member states have said that they would be willing to attend an emergency meeting if one was called, the highest total yet. The list includes Iraq, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Iran, and of course Venezuela. Russia and Oman, two non-OPEC members, would also be willing to attend. “The idea is to not just hold a meeting, but for all the countries to attend with the intention of reaching agreements,” Venezuela’s oil minister Eulogio Del Pino said in the statement.
The number of people employed in oil and gas extraction and support activities across the United States has fallen by around 100,000 since October 2014. Between October 2014 and November 2015, the number of people on the payroll of oil and gas extraction firms and support services fell by almost 87,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
But once data on job losses in December and January becomes available, the total reduction is likely to be around 100,000, or 16 percent of employment at its peak. Total employment in oil and gas production and services fell from almost 538,000 in October 2014 to 451,000 in November 2015 and is likely to have slipped under 440,000 in January.
Financial Times: Standard & Poor’s cuts ratings of US oil and gas groups
Three leading shale oil and gas producers, Continental Resources, Southwestern Energy and privately held Hunt Oil, were downgraded from investment grade to “junk” status. Exxon, the largest US oil group and one of only three companies in the country with an AAA status, was put on watch for a possible downgrade of the rating. Ratings for Chevron as well as EOG Resources, Apache and Devon Energy, three large independent oil and gas producers, were cut but remained investment grade. Ratings for Hess, Marathon Oil and Murphy Oil, three other leading independent US exploration and production companies, were cut to BBB-, also still investment grade but just one notch above junk. ConocoPhillips, the largest US exploration and production company, was also put on watch for a possible downgrade within 90 days. Occidental Petroleum, EQT, Cimarex Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources were affirmed at investment grade ratings.
We need a sustainable funding solution that takes into account the integrated, interdependent nature of our transportation system. Travelers choose between walking, biking, driving, flying, and taking the train; and companies choose between trucks, barges, airplanes and rail lines. So to meet our needs in the future, we have to make significant investments across all modes of transportation. And our transportation system is heavily dependent on oil. That is why we are proposing to fund these investments through a new $10 per barrel fee on oil paid by oil companies, which would be gradually phased in over five years. The fee raises the funding necessary to make these new investments, while also providing for the long-term solvency of the Highway Trust Fund to ensure we maintain the infrastructure we have. By placing a fee on oil, the President’s plan creates a clear incentive for private sector innovation to reduce our reliance on oil and at the same time invests in clean energy technologies that will power our future.
China Daily: China stops approving new coal mines
China won’t approve any new coal mines before the end of 2019, the State Council said on Friday, as authorities work to slash overcapacity in the industry. The country will shut down 500 million tons of capacity and consolidate another 500 million tons into the hands of fewer but more efficient mine operators in the next three to five years, according to a guideline issued by the council. It said the government will continue to encourage mergers and acquisitions to make companies more competitive, and that the sector will be opened wider to private capital. The state council wants every coal producer’s output to be no less than three million tons per year.Massive coal production powered China’s economic advance in the past few decades, but shrink-ing domestic demand amid the economic slowdown has made much of this capacity redundant.In the past five years, China eliminated about 560 million tons of coal production capacity and closed 7,250 coal mines.
Spain’s government has held meetings with the European Commission with a view to propping up its coal industry which is suffering accelerated closures due to low international prices, the country’s industry ministry said Friday. Industry minister Jose Manuel Soria met with the EU’s competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager last week to ensure that a plan of “ordered closures” through to 2018 is maintained. In the meeting, Spain proposed a temporary mechanism covering the period to 2018 which could guarantee the ongoing use of domestic coal, the ministry said, without elaborating. The ministry said that the Spanish case had been well received and that the two sides would look for a solution that was compatible with European regulations. Soria argued that, given Spain’s isolated nature, security of supply is relatively vulnerable and requires domestic supply. A potential solution would be to find a legal way for Spain to compensate the burning of domestic coal up to 2018, the ministry said. Spanish unions have said that as many as 2,000 jobs are dependent on a solution.
The German city of Aachen has decided to sue the operators of Belgium’s Tihange nuclear power plant over fears that the restart of the aging facility, which was initially taken offline over safety, poses a nuclear threat to the region. The unanimous decision by the city committee to first bring the suit to Belgian courts, before possibly suing Tihange operator, Electrabel, in EU court in Brussels, comes after the CDU, SPD, FDP and Greens fractions agreed that the power plant poses an environmental threat. The lawsuit seeks “decommissioning Tihange 2” which lies only 71 kilometers (44 miles) West of Aachen. The city argues that Electrabel is in breach of the European law after the operator allegedly failed to fix cracks in the protective concrete. The faulty reactor was taken offline in March 2014 due to cracks in the concrete blocks, but was returned to service in March 2015 without the necessary repairs.
Germany took over from France as the main net exporter in January as German supply margins improved while France’s deteriorated. German outbound flows increased 2.5% to 8.3GW/hour, marking the first time in nine months that the country’s exports were significantly higher than France’s. Strong wind generation and relatively mild weather boosted supply margins. All of the monthly increases in exports were confined to Germany’s eastern borders – a pattern that has now been observed for three consecutive months. Exports to Poland were particularly strong with freezing temperatures boosting demand while supply disruptions were caused by the cold weather conditions triggering cooling issues at Poland’s main power plants, forcing them into unplanned outages. Similarly the Czech Republic was suffering from prolonged outages to 1GW of nuclear capacity and Austria was faced with interconnector restrictions along its border with Hungary. This led to an uptick in German flows to Austria and Czech Republic where net exports were flat month on month.While Germany’s net exports increased, France’s receded by 23% to 6.2GW/hour. Weak hydroelectricity stocks, erratic wind output and colder temperatures increased the strain on the French grid. Elsewhere high hydropower in Spain has reduced the need for French imports.
Official figures released by Germany’s Federal Environment Agency show that the country’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 4.6 percent in 2014 to the equivalent of 901.9 million metric tons of CO2 in an apparent return to the long-term trend following an uptick in 2013. The greatest reductions were achieved in electricity generation, where emissions fell by the equivalent of 20.9 million tons of CO2 despite continued growth in electricity exports. 20.8 million tons of reductions have been attributed to the relatively mild weather in 2014, with German households burning less oil and gas for heating. Perhaps most disappointing, however, is the 2.2 percent increase in greenhouse gas emissions from transport. Despite Germany’s remarkable prowess in car production – dodgy emissions software aside – the country is struggling to recreate the momentum it has achieved in renewable electricity in the introduction of electric cars. Officially, the government aims to have 1 million electric vehicles registered by 2020 – a target that is looking increasingly utopian with just 19,000 pure EVs currently registered in the country.
Statistics from the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) show greenhouse gas emissions fell by 7.7 per cent in 2014, with carbon dioxide emissions falling 8.9 per cent. DECC said the largest decreases came from the energy supply sector, where emissions fell by 13.6 percent due to a decrease in the use of coal for electricity generation, and in the residential sector, where emissions fell by 17.0 percent due to falling demand for gas used in heating. The energy produced 31 per cent of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions, transport accounted for 23 per cent and the business sector made up 17 per cent. Carbon dioxide accounted for 82 percent of total UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2014.
Hinkley Point, in Somerset, has been beset with delays and cost overruns since 2010. EDF agreed a subsidy deal over Hinkley Point in 2013 and currently has a 66.5 per cent stake in the project, after Chinese utility CGN took a 33.5 per cent stake in the project. But EDF has £28bn net debt and needs to find an estimated £41bn to extend the lifespan of 58 French nuclear plants. The company is said to be pressuring the French government, which owns 85 per cent of EDF, to take some of its stake in Hinkley Point. And this week it emerged that the power station could be further put off, as five French union members on EDF’s 18-seat board came out in opposition of the project. The CGT union, CFE-CGC management union and the more radical FO union all stand to vote it down until EDF has strengthened its balance sheet and started up its other projects elsewhere. But the opponents would not be able to scupper the plans unless a total of nine board members vote to delay them.
A question mark over a planned £14bn nuclear power station in Anglesey have been raised after the company behind the project said issues over the Hinkley Point nuclear project has thrown up “very serious concerns” about its investment in the UK. Chairman of Hitachi, whose subsidiary Horizon is behind the Wylfa Newydd nuclear project, Hiroaki Nakanishi, told the Sunday Telegraph said the setback being experienced by French conglomerate EDF for its planned nuclear power at Hinkley in Somerset, raised questions about how future plants, including Wylfa, are funded. Last week the board of EDF delayed a final decision on its £18bn project, raising concerns whether the indebted group, despite Chinese investment backing, can make the project stack up, despite a strike price subsidy agreement from the UK Government. Horizon is still is discussions with the Department and Climate Change on a strike price for Wylfa Newydd, which is expected to start generating electricity by the mid 2020s.
Telegraph: Three of four Fiddler’s Ferry units to close
SSE has announced plans to shut most of its Fiddler’s Ferry coal-fired power plant in April, wiping 1.5 gigawatts of power capacity from the UK grid and worsening the looming energy crisis next winter. The energy giant said it intended to shut three out of four units at the loss-making Cheshire power station, reneging on a Government subsidy contract to keep them running until 2018-19 and putting 213 jobs at risk. The move, which the Telegraph revealed SSE was considering last week, was condemned as “extremely disappointing” by the Government, which sought to reassure households the lights would stay on. “We will continue to work alongside National Grid and Ofgem to take whatever additional steps are necessary to protect our energy supply,” a spokesman for the Department of Energy and Climate Change said.
The UK government and the electricity regulator moved on Thursday to reassure consumers that they will not face blackouts as the result of the closure of most of a major coal power plant. Operator SSE said the closure of three out of four generation units at the 2GW Fiddler’s Ferry near Manchester, which has made financial losses for two years, was likely to take place on 1 April. The Department of Energy and Climate Change said: “There will be no impact on this winter and action has already been taken to secure extra capacity for next winter. We will continue to work alongside National Grid and Ofgem to take whatever additional steps are necessary to protect our energy supply. SSE’s intention to break their contract is extremely disappointing and they will have to pay a significant penalty.” Ofgem said: “The planned closure of Fiddler’s Ferry power station will have no impact on security of energy supply for the current winter. We are confident that electricity supplies will be secure next winter but there is no room for complacency.”
In recent years, wind power has taken second billing to solar technology in its contribution to the world’s energy supply, but the industry has been given a huge boost this week: Danish firm, Dong Energy, has announced plans to build the largest wind farm yet, located off the north-east coast of the UK in the North Sea. Turbines standing 190 metres tall (623 feet) – higher than the iconic Gherkin building in the centre of London – will eventually provide enough power for a million homes, once the project is up and running in 2020. Set to be located some 75 miles (121 km) off the coast of Yorkshire, it will be the first offshore wind farm to exceed 1 gigawatts in capacity and will be capable of producing 1.2 GW of power at its upper limit. “It is ground-breaking and innovative, powering more homes than any offshore wind farm currently in operation,” said Dong Energy UK country chairman, Brent Cheshire. “To have the world’s biggest ever offshore wind farm located off the Yorkshire coast is hugely significant, and highlights the vital role offshore wind will play in the UK’s need for new low-carbon energy.”
The world’s biggest offshore wind farm is to be built 75 miles off the coast of Grimsby, at an estimated cost to energy bill-payers of at least £4.2 billion. The giant Hornsea Project One wind farm will consist of 174 turbines, each 623ft tall – higher than the Gherkin building in London – and will span an area more than five times the size of Hull. First electricity from the project is expected to be generated in 2019 and the wind farm should be fully operational by 2020. The wind farm was handed a subsidy contract by former energy secretary Ed Davey in 2014 that will see it paid four times the current market price of power for every unit of electricity it generates for 15 years. The National Audit Office was highly critical of the way in which the contracts were awarded without competition, concluding ministers had paid too much as a result. It estimated that the Hornsea One project would require a total of £4.2 billion in subsidies, an average of about £280 million per year. Consumers will be on the hook to pay subsidies to make up the difference between the market price of power – currently about £35 per megawatt-hour – and a guaranteed price, of £140/MWh. These will be funded by households and businesses through green levies on their energy bills.
It would be “utter madness” for the government to withdraw its support at this late stage from a £1bn revolutionary tidal energy scheme at Swansea Bay, Lib Dem leader Tim Farron will tell his party’s spring conference in Cardiff on Saturday. The planned project, awaiting a funding decision from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, would provide hundreds of jobs and much-needed low carbon power for over a century, he argues.Farron spoke out amid mounting speculation that ministers are growing cold on the tidal lagoon project, which was included in the Conservative manifesto but has been delayed by tortuous negotiations on subsidies. “The Swansea Bay tidal lagoon must go ahead. It will provide hundreds of jobs and supply energy for 120 years – over three times as long as a nuclear plant,” argued Farron. “It would be utter madness for the government to pull further investment from the renewable sector which generates economic growth and jobs. We have been a world leader in this field and maintaining that status is now in jeopardy. The tidal lagoon is a litmus test for the government. Do you care about this agenda? Or was it all for show?” he asks. The speech comes after David Cameron told a committee of MPs recently that his enthusiasm for the scheme had been “reduced” by concerns over the high subsidies needed to make the project commercial.
The U.K. risks losing out on billions of pounds of investment in renewable energy projects such as wind farms and grid upgrades if it quits the European Union and ditches its stake in the European Investment Bank. Britain is the biggest recipient of the EIB’s Climate Awareness Bond Project, taking 24 percent of the 7.2 billion euros ($7.9 billion) invested by the Luxembourg-based development bank in renewable energy and energy efficiency projects around the world since 2007, according to the EIB. It is unclear if the U.K. would still get EIB funding if it left the EU, said Peter Munro, head of investor relations for the bank. It’s a “devilishly complicated” issue and would depend on whether the U.K. wanted to remain a stakeholder and whether other member states would allow that, he said.
In a survey of 17 countries, the people of Britain has ranked 15th in its concern over climate change. The UK, US and Saudi Arabia are the three countries least concerned among the group surveyed by YouGov. Only 10.8% of Britons ranked climate change as their most important issue. Hong Kong is the most concerned, with 20 per cent of those surveyed choosing the issue ahead of eight others. The Scandinavians countries are also among the more concerned. They – and the Chinese, the French, the Germans, the Indonesians and the people of the UAE, among others – all care more than the British.
Climate change minister Dr Aileen McLeod will tell Scots that “saving the world isn’t just for the movies”, in a new campaign urging people to do more to tackle climate change. The campaign, launching on TV and radio today, will seek to raise awareness of environmentally friendly behaviour. The campaign follows criticism from opposition parties and environmental groups, after it was revealed the Scottish Government plans to reduce spending on climate change mitigation by nearly ten per cent in the draft 2016/17 budget. The Committee on Climate Change also raised concerns with Scottish Government officials over the planned cut.
Yan Qin, a senior modelling analyst at Thompson Reuters Point Carbon, told the Guardian a few dips still lie ahead for the solar industry. The main is grid infrastructure, which was built to carry fairly consistent levels of generation and will struggle to cope with the variability of solar and wind energy. National grids are adapting, but the infrastructure investments are huge and the work slow. In Europe, a plan to build a massive solar farm in the Sahara desert that would provide 15% of Europe’s power by 2050, collapsed because the costs involved in transmission of solar power have not fallen as fast as the costs to build panels. Gielen said this variability was a limit to growth. “You have a very strong seasonality in solar production. That is a problem at higher latitudes. If you would connect all the countries around the world then always somewhere the sun would shine and problem solved. But we are still quite far from that situation,” he said.
“It doesn’t always rain when you need water, so we have reservoirs – but we don’t have the same system for electricity,” says Jill Cainey, director of the UK’s Electricity Storage Network. But that may change in 2016, with industry figures predicting a breakthrough year for a technology not only seen as vital to the large-scale rollout of renewable energy, but also offering the prospect of lowering customers’ energy bills. Big batteries, whose costs are plunging, are leading the way. But a host of other technologies, from existing schemes like splitting water to create hydrogen, compressing air in underground caverns, flywheels and heated gravel pits, to longer term bets like supercapacitors and superconducting magnets, are also jostling for position.
Reporting Climate science: UAH reports warmest January in satellite record:
As widely anticipated, global temperatures in January set a record for the month, eclipsing January 1998 as the warmest January in the satellite temperature dataset, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. In a sense, that could mean 2016 is in a “race” to see if it will pass 1998 as the warmest year on rec-ord. In addition to a major El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, 2016 has 17 years of warming to raise the base temperature from which the El Niño begins. While the global temperature in January was a record setter, in the tropics January 2016 fell significantly (more than 0.25 C) short of the 1998 record. It could mean less energy is available to be transferred from the ocean into the atmosphere. It could mean the heat transfer might peak later this year than in previous El Niño years or might already be near its peak. What we know is that under the best of circumstances the climate system is complex and difficult to forecast. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming months.
Christian Science Monitor: Why planting trees to combat global warming may not work
A new study published Thursday in the journal Science, shows that an expansion of forests to-wards dark green conifers in Europe has stoked global warming. The findings challenge the widespread view that planting more trees helps human efforts to slow the Earth’s rising temperatures. Apparently, not all trees have the same mitigating effect. “Two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe have not cooled the climate,” a team of scientists led by France’s Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement wrote. While the area of Europe’s forests has expanded by 10 percent since 1750, the continent’s summer temperatures have increased 0.12 degree Celsius (0.2 Fahrenheit). The scientists say that’s largely because many nations have planted conifers such as pines and spruces whose dark color traps the sun’s heat. Lighter-colored broad-leafed trees, such as oak or birch, reflect more sunlight. But fast-growing conifers, which are used for everything from building materials to pulp, have long outpaced them.
Researchers at the University of Malaya who have designed the streetlight aim to replace all conventional streetlights with this eco-friendly and smart streetlight in the region. The streetlight includes a box that attracts mosquitoes by trying to smell like a human by combining UV light and titanium dioxide and little CO2, which is as irresistible as human breath. As soon as the insect flies closer to investigate, a fan sucks it in and kills it, Fastcoexist reports. During floods, the streetlight can measure the height of the floodwater and also send reports and warnings via an antenna atop it. The streetlight has all the electronics at its top and the bottom is waterproof, which makes it possible to work even in flood situations. In case of a power cut in the area, residents could also plug in their smartphone or rechargeable batteries to stay connected. Eight such streetlights have been already installed at the University of Malaya campus in a pilot project and the researchers are all geared up to commercialise it.
A boredom epidemic is sweeping through Britain’s dog population – and global warming could be to blame. Leading pet behaviourists told The Independent that the number of depressed and unsettled dogs they have seen in recent months is unprecedented. And they suggested that the spate of wet winters could be at the root of the problem, as owners cut down on the daily walks that are crucial to keeping dogs’ spirits up. “I’ve been working with dogs for more than 20 years and I can’t remember a time when they’ve been this bored. I tend to see boredom in bursts but I’m seeing it chronically this winter,” said Carolyn Menteith, a dog behaviourist who was named Britain’s Instructor of the Year in 2015. “They are just really, really, bored. People are quite happy to get their dogs out in frosty, hard weather but not when it’s muddy and horrible.” “But we have over 200 breeds of dog in this country and an awful lot of them – especially family dogs like Labradors, retrievers and spaniels – were bred to do a job. So they are hardwired to work and need a lot of exercise.” The lack of physical exercise – and mental stimulation that comes with it – is having noticeable consequences on the nation’s nine million dogs, she added. Ms Menteith spends much of her time outside walking dogs and has noticed a significant change in the weather in the past five years or so – as cold, crisp winters gradually give way to “constant wet dreariness”. She – like many scientists and meteorologists – puts this down to climate change and expects to see more bored dogs in the future as global warming unleashes increasingly frequent and intense bouts of winter rainfall.