Tag Archives: bp

The gulf between the Paris Climate Agreement and energy projections

According to the Paris Climate Agreement a rapid decrease in the world’s consumption of fossil fuels is now mandatory if the Earth is to be saved from climate disaster. Projections of future energy use, however, are unanimous in predicting an increase in the world’s consumption of fossil fuels in coming decades. Either the energy consumption projections are wrong or the Paris goal is unachievable. This post reviews the basic provisions of the Paris Agreement, compares them with six independent estimates of future energy consumption and concludes that while the energy consumption estimates are subject to uncertainty the goals of the Paris Agreement are indeed unachievable. Continue reading

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Emissions reductions and world energy demand growth

A major obstacle to cutting global CO2 emissions is growth in world energy demand. In this post I examine world energy growth projections from a number of different sources and compare them with the growth trends that will be necessary to meet emissions reductions goals. It goes without saying that there is an enormous gulf between the two. This leaves the world with a stark choice – cut fossil fuel consumption by 80% by 2050 or suffer the consequences of global warming, whatever they may be. Continue reading

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BP 2016: Global Energy Production at a Glance

Oil, gas, nuclear, hydro and new-renewables production all grew in 2015 while coal production declined by 4%, the first significant decline for many decades. But global CO2 emissions were still up by 0.1%. Notably, CO2 emissions rose in Germany, Austria, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland.

Fossil fuels still dominate with 86.1% of primary energy in 2015 compared with 86.8% in the year 2000. Continue reading

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EU and BP Renewable Electricity Accounting Methodologies

Every EU country has a renewable energy target to be met by 2020 where the target is set as a percentage of total energy consumption. Since most countries are using combinations of hydro, solar and wind electricity (primary electricity) to achieve their targets, one needs a way of comparing primary electricity with energy from coal, oil and gas etc. The standard way adopted by the EU and by BP is to convert all forms of energy to tonnes of oil equivalent (toe). If coal, oil or gas is used to make electricity then there are large thermal losses doing so. BP correctly account for this by grossing up renewable electricity by a factor of 100/38 to account for “thermal gain” when converting from primary electricity to a fossil fuel equivalent. The EU do not appear to do this, thus all of EU renewable electricity statistics appear to be wrong. This is no trivial matter given the many billions being spent by countries trying to achieve their targets. Continue reading

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EU 2020 Renewable Energy Targets: Part I

The progress being made in attaining the 2020 renewable energy (RE) targets is reviewed for 10 EU countries and for the EU as a whole using BP 2015 data. There are two main targets to be met 1) 20% of all primary energy from RE sources and 2) 10% of transport fuel from RE sources. The EU as a whole is projected to narrowly miss the 20% RE target by about 1%. The transport fuel target is less easy to estimate but will likely by missed by a substantial margin. Continue reading

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A State of Confusion

In the wake of Paris and COP21 both sides are claiming victory. The Greens believe they finally have a treaty that will deliver the dismantling of the fossil fuel industries and capitalism propelling the human race into a renewable idyl. The Sceptics see Paris as toothless mush that will likely deliver nothing apart from hardship on already struggling economies. Continue reading

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Blowout week 97

A focus on the United States this week, beginning with Obama’s not-unexpected rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline and moving on to the parlous state of the US nuclear industry. Then the usual mix, including rifts in OPEC, Canada to get serious about cutting emissions, blackouts in Adelaide (but not in the UK), the Exxon global warming investigation, China’s coal consumption revised upwards, Icelink under way, the Galloper wind farm resurrected, Antarctica gaining ice, the coming magnetic pole reversal, floating wind turbines, the solar power tower, how whisky can help neutralize radioactive waste and how global warming will cause less sex and fewer babies. Continue reading

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EU Renewable Energy Targets: The Compliance Statistics are Suspect

This post examines EU renewable energy targets and how the various member states are doing in meeting the targets agreed for 2020. It has been found that the compliance data published by Eurostat does not agree with the raw Eurostat or BP statistics. Continue reading

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The Oil Price: how low is low?

With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent close to their January 2015 lows some readers are wondering how these lows compare with historic lows when the oil price is adjusted for inflation (deflated).

To get straight to the point. Brent will need to fall below $30 to match the lows seen in 1986 and to below $20 to match the lows seen in 1998.

Continue reading

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Blowout Week 84

Stories below the fold include: Saudia Arabia borrowing money, BP to invest in N. Sea oil, nuclear risks are all in the mind, renewables self-destructing, Jeremy Corbyn on rooftop solar and nationalization, Germany’s neighbors blocking imports of unwanted German wind & solar…. Continue reading

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Blowout week 83

The usual potpourri of news from around the world below the fold, including layoffs at Shell and Centrica, BP still paying for Deepwater Horizon, an Australian coal mine sells for $1, Fukushima executives charged…. Continue reading

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China: post-industrial revolution

In this post I revisit the energy production and consumption data for China looking for clues about the future direction of global energy markets. China now consumes 23.2% of all energy consumed on Earth and clearly what happens in China will impact the whole world. Figure 1, lifted from the 2015 BP Statistical Review, shows how dramatically growth has slowed in China. Energy intensive steel and cement are barely growing as the era of industrialisation and building infrastructure comes to an end. So may this in part explain the 2014 oil price crash? Continue reading

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Is the European Renewable Energy Bubble About To Burst?

Well, is it? You would certainly never think so from Figure 1, which shows renewables generation in the EU28 more than doubling between 2003 and 2014 and continuing to grow at a healthy clip. Nor from Figure 2, which shows the EU28 on track to meet its target of obtaining 27% of its energy from renewables by 2030 with room to spare. Continue reading

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Blowout week 76

This week’s Blowout features the ongoing economic transition in China, which has potentially major implications for the world energy and natural resource industries.

Stories below the fold include OPEC pumping more oil than ever, bargain-hunting in the North Sea, lack of progress at the Bonn climate talks, coal plant closures in Australia, EPA to regulate airline emissions, new renewables records set in UK, planning permission granted for the Swansea tidal lagoon, the decreasing competitiveness of nuclear electricity in France, nuclear to the rescue in drought-stricken California, and how global warming is forcing polar bears to eat dolphins while climate change ruins your weekend. Continue reading

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Global Energy Trends – BP Statistical Review 2015

The BP Statistical review of World Energy was published on Wednesday 10th June. Last year I published a short post summarising Global Energy Trends and this post up-dates those charts with the newly published data for 2014. Continue reading

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Blowout week 36

Fracking in PA; Paul Nurse and Brian Cox dislike scepticism; BP on the rocks; “FREEDOM” for Scotland; Blackouts around the corner; China & India cool on climate talks; North Sea Fracking mad; 15 nukes in Ukraine give NATO headache; Wind records – really?; Floating solar in Japan. 33 stories in total this week Continue reading

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The Clair Oilfield – distilling facts from fiction

In an email last week: “Recently a number of friends of mine have been telling me that the largest oil field in the world has been discovered encompassing BP Clair Ridge.” I agreed to write a short post setting out the facts as I understand them. Continue reading

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Renewable Energy Growth in Perspective

Renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, continues to set records for electicity generation and installed capacity in many parts of the world, and as shown in Figure 1 wind and solar growth in recent years has indeed been quite spectacular Continue reading

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Global Energy Trends – BP Statistical Review 2014

In 2003, FF accounted for 87% of global primary energy consumption. In 2013, FF accounted for 87% of global primary energy consumption. This is testimony to the absolute failure of energy policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions. Continue reading

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The efficiency of wind power

The “global” wind power load factor is estimated to be 22.7% for 2012. This is based on an analysis of installed wind capacity and electricity production data for 17 countries published by BP [1]. This estimate is subject to the veracity of the data and methodology applied. The average load factor for the last 9 years is estimated to be 22.5±0.4% (1SD). Continue reading

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