Tag Archives: forecast

Oil Price Scenario for 2017

Every year around this time I make an oil price “forecast” for fun and have a bet with a friend. A year ago my BAU scenario for Brent was $37 for December 2016. The current front month is $55.80. My friend wagered on $64 leaving $50.50 as the break-even point. It is time to concede defeat and examine why I did so badly?

To cut to the quick, my wag for December 2017 is $60 but we may see $80 some time during the year. Light tight oil (LTO) production has disturbed the historic price-supply dynamic adding uncertainty to predictions. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , | 6 Comments

European gas security

The loss of 14 bcm/y Dutch gas production adds to Europe’s energy supply / energy security woes. Pending decline of Norwegian gas production will make the energy security situation worse. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , | 11 Comments