Tag Archives: iea

The gulf between the Paris Climate Agreement and energy projections

According to the Paris Climate Agreement a rapid decrease in the world’s consumption of fossil fuels is now mandatory if the Earth is to be saved from climate disaster. Projections of future energy use, however, are unanimous in predicting an increase in the world’s consumption of fossil fuels in coming decades. Either the energy consumption projections are wrong or the Paris goal is unachievable. This post reviews the basic provisions of the Paris Agreement, compares them with six independent estimates of future energy consumption and concludes that while the energy consumption estimates are subject to uncertainty the goals of the Paris Agreement are indeed unachievable. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 71 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics November 2016

In October, global total liquids production hit a new record high of 97.84 Mbpd led by OPEC and Russia! This was caused largely by the scramble to boost production ahead of production cuts with a datum on October 2016. The US rig count continues to rise and US production has stopped falling. The rest of the oil production world outside of OPEC, N America and Russia continues to suffer under the weight of low oil price. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Emissions reductions and world energy demand growth

A major obstacle to cutting global CO2 emissions is growth in world energy demand. In this post I examine world energy growth projections from a number of different sources and compare them with the growth trends that will be necessary to meet emissions reductions goals. It goes without saying that there is an enormous gulf between the two. This leaves the world with a stark choice – cut fossil fuel consumption by 80% by 2050 or suffer the consequences of global warming, whatever they may be. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 110 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics May 2016

The big news in April’s production numbers is the surge in global production by 250,000 bpd that is largely down to a 300,000 bpd surge from Iran that the IEA now deems to be producing at capacity. The oil price rally continued through May into June with Brent now over $50 supported by the Fort McMurray black swan and growing unrest in the Niger Delta that the WSJ reports has knocked 1 Mbpd off Nigeria’s production. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

The Energy Return of Solar PV

A new study by Ferroni and Hopkirk [1] estimates the ERoEI of temperate latitude solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to be 0.83. If correct, that means more energy is used to make the PV panels than will ever be recovered from them during their 25 year lifetime. A PV panel will produce more CO2 than if coal were simply used directly to make electricity. Worse than that, all the CO2 from PV production is in the atmosphere today, while burning coal to make electricity, the emissions would be spread over the 25 year period. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 302 Comments

Oil Price Scenarios for 2016

Let’s cut to the quick. My forecast for Brent at around this time next year in my BAU scenario is $37. This is grim reading for all those involved in and around the oil industry. Worse still, I think there is high probability that we see sub-$20 oil before the first quarter is out. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 55 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics October 2015

The “big news” this month is that the banks granted over leveraged, loss making shale oil drillers a stay of execution by continuing to provide credit lines. Consequently, there was no major move in US oil drilling or production though both are trending down. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 28 Comments

Renewable Energy At The Crossroads – IEA

IEA has concluded that due to “persistent policy uncertainties” renewable energy is not expanding quickly enough to allow the world to meet its climate targets . This brief post concludes that renewable energy will not expand quickly enough to meet the world’s present climate targets even if these uncertainties are removed. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics August 2015

The main action this month has been on the oil price that continued to slide. Both WTI and Brent set new post-crisis lows but saw sharp reversals on 27th and 28th August last week. Global oil production data remains in its up trend although there are signs from the regions that this may be slowing and reversing. Monthly data revisions continue to obscure the real picture. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 13 Comments

Blowout Week 85

The usual mix below the fold, including the EPA’s unscheduled release of contaminated water from a Colorado gold mine, Poland rations electricity, IEA’s oil market predictions, Venezuela wants an OPEC meeting, wireless charging of EVs, Gazprom to expand Nord Stream, US shale oil gets even cheaper, Scotland needs a supergrid, Sendai nuclear plant threatened by volcano….. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 29 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics July 2015

The US oil directed rig count was up 31 for the month of July and WTI is down about $11 for the month at time of writing. Global total liquids production was up 540,000 bpd in June. The production momentum built in recent years is proving very difficult to switch off. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , | 10 Comments

“The bottom of the market may still be ahead”

The title of this post, “The bottom of the market may still be ahead”, is the last line of the July IEA OMR summary. Those companies and investors hoping for an early end to this low price crisis may be disappointed. Global supply was up again in June by 550,000 bpd. Demand growth looks set to slow. Inventories are at record levels. And not surprisingly prices have once again yielded to the gravity of glut and have fallen below $60 / bbl. To add insult to injury US oil rig count has risen these last two weeks and UK North Sea oil production looks set to rise in the years ahead. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 22 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics: April 2015

Global oil production is declining slowly but remains just above its long-term trend. Just over 94.04 Mbpd was produced in February.

The recovery in the oil price in February reversed in March and WTI has tested its January lows. Spreading conflict in the Middle East adds further complexity to the price dynamic.

The plunge in US oil rig count has slowed significantly although still falling slowly. This may signal a new phase of the oil price war that is discussed at the end of this post. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 17 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics: March 2015

World total liquids down 40,000 bpd
OPEC down 240,000 bpd
N America down 10,000 bpd
Russia and FSU down 70,000 bpd
UK and Norway down 40,000 bpd (compared with January 2014)
Asia up 60,000 bpd Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 12 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics – February 2015

The main oil production changes from November to December are:

World total liquids up 150,000 bpd
OPEC up 80,000 bpd
N America up 80,000 bpd
Russia and FSU up 180,000 bpd
Europe down 70,000 bpd (compared with December 2013)
Asia down 60,000 bpd Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 11 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics – January 2015

This is the first in a monthly series of posts chronicling the action in the global oil market in 11 key charts.

The oil price crash of 2014 / 15 is following the same pace of the 2008 crash. The 2008 crash was demand driven and began 2 months ahead of the broader market crash.

The US oil rig count peaked in October 2014, is down 127 rigs from peak and is falling fast.

Production in OPEC, Russia and FSU, China and SE Asia and in the North Sea are all stable to falling slowly. The bogey in the pack is the USA where a production rise of 4 Mbpd in 4 years has upset the global supply dynamic.

It is unreasonable for the OECD IEA to expect Saudi Arabia to cut production of cheap oil in order to create market capacity for expensive US oil.

There are likely both over supply and weak demand factors at play, weighted towards the latter. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 49 Comments

Oil Price Scenarios for 2015 and 2016

In this post I use the empirical supply and demand dynamic described in an earlier post (The 2014 oil price crash explained) to try and constrain the oil price a year from now and in 2016. The outcome is heavily dependent upon assumptions made about supply and demand and the behaviour of OPEC and the banking sector. Three different scenarios are presented with December 2015 prices ranging from $45 to $100 / bbl. Those hoping for a silver bullet forecast will be disappointed. Individuals must judge the scenarios on merit and decide for themselves which outcome, if any, is most likely. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 36 Comments

The Appalling Truth About Energy Subsidies

The renewables subsidies are paid to producers by the consumers and are the exact opposite of the fossil fuel subsidies paid by producers to consumers.

We are comparing apples with oranges but normalising for energy production, the renewables subsidies are 8.4 times larger and amount to 94% of the value of the energy produced. This latter statistic is hard to believe, but if it is close to true, it suggests that new renewables are contributing virtually nothing to society. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Political commentary | Tagged , , | 50 Comments

Blowout week 46

The main stream media is full of low oil price stories this week and is suitably alert to the risks this poses to the oil industry and global economy. Normally low oil price would be viewed as a positive thing, but on the back side of Hubbert’s peak things work differently. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Drowning in oil again

For 4 years now the oil price (Brent) has been range bound between $90 and $130 per barrel (Figure 2). This is where it settled after the convulsions of the $148 per barrel peak in 2008 followed by the financial crash. Recently it has dipped below the $90 mark and looks set to break even lower. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 43 Comments