Tag Archives: iran

Blowout Week 158

The signatories to the the Paris Climate Agreement, who include just about every country in the world, agree that the world must cut its fossil fuel emissions drastically if global climate catastrophe is to be avoided. Yet according to Exxon’s just-released Energy Outlook (the IEA and EIA outlooks are similar) the world will be burning more fossil fuels in 2040 than it is now. Does this mean that the world is doomed? Or is somebody missing something?

We continue with stories on the fallout from OPEC’s production cut, followed by nuclear in the US, France, Sweden and China, coal in China and Australia, renewables in China, Europe, and Germany, recent events in UK, roads that recharge EVs in Israel, 2016 ties 1998 for the warmest year on record in the lower troposphere and India solves the carbon capture and storage problem.
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Blowout week 154

This week we kick off with the controversial appointment of Scott Pruitt to head the US Environment Protection Agency. Else where in the news non-OPEC exporters agree to cut production by 500,000 bpd; Glencore and Qatar buys a stake in Rosneft; Shell moves into Iran; National Grid sells a majority stake in the UK gas transmission system and 9 Yak herders are killed by an avalanche in Tibet to join the lengthening list of those killed by climate change. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 140

This week’s Blowout focuses on the “formal commitment” of Presidents Xi of China and Obama of the U.S. to the Paris Climate Accord. Xi may be in a position to commit China but it’s questionable whether Obama has the ability to commit the U.S. without congressional approval. The last time the U.S. signed a major climate accord (Kyoto in 1997) it was promptly and unanimously repudiated by the U.S. Senate: Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics August 2016

World total liquids bounced by a further 790,000 bpd in July partly on the back of continued recovery in Canada. Total liquids now stand at 97.01 Mbpd, down a meagre 70,000 bpd since July 2015.

The oil price staged a modest cyclical rally in August to close at $48.5 (Brent) on August 19th. Robust production from OPEC and Russia combined with large inventories hanging over the market makes me inclined to agree with Art Berman who speculates that prices will remain range bound between £38 and $52 in the near term. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 139

Elsewhere in this week’s Blowout: Iran / OPEC deal on the cards; China accused of nuclear espionage; UK government looks for ways to torpedo Hinkley Point; Fessenheim nuclear power plant in France to close; coking coal price on the rise; £200 million pumped storage hydro scheme on Lewis; National grid clutching at straw batteries; Telegraph living in the real world; Tesla cramming in more electrons; Human caused climate change started in 1830; Air Africa to run on Woodbines; France opts for tree wind power over nuclear power. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 137

This week we return to Hinkley Point, where yet another potentially deal-breaking complication has arisen as a result of the US filing suit against the China General Nuclear Power Company – a 33.5% stakeholder in Hinkley – for nuclear espionage. China has warned that retaliatory measures may be taken if the UK now dumps Hinkley. So what happens next? Continue reading

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Blowout Week 133

This week’s Blowout features the demise of the DECC and its amalgamation into the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Does this signal a sea change in UK government energy policy, or is it business-as-usual under a new banner?

Following up are stories on the reactions of the greens to the disappearance of the DECC and on what Theresa May thinks about climate change. (It seems that she has never established a position; her few recorded utterances are heavy into energy security but say nothing about climate change per se.)
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Oil Production Vital Statistics June 2016

The big news in May’s production figures is Canada down 620,000 bpd in the wake of the Fort McMurray wild fire, Nigeria down 250,000 bpd in the wake of civil unrest on the Niger Delta and Libya down 80,000 bpd as that country disintegrates in the wake of western intervention in its civil war.

Global total liquids production was down 760,000 bpd in May and while the oil price was perky, getting above $50 in early June, it has not really responded to any of those events. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics May 2016

The big news in April’s production numbers is the surge in global production by 250,000 bpd that is largely down to a 300,000 bpd surge from Iran that the IEA now deems to be producing at capacity. The oil price rally continued through May into June with Brent now over $50 supported by the Fort McMurray black swan and growing unrest in the Niger Delta that the WSJ reports has knocked 1 Mbpd off Nigeria’s production. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016

Since the possible double bottom at $26 formed on February 11th the oil price has staged a rally to $40 (WTI). Traders lucky enough to buy at $26 and sell at $40 have pocketed a tidy 54% profit. Very few will have been this lucky. The trade was stimulated by news that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to not increase production this year which is hollow news since neither country could significantly increase production no matter how hard they tried. Profit taking has now driven WTI back towards $37 as of 1 April. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics February 2016

High Oil Price Volatility signals that the market has not yet decided the future direction of the oil price. Global production was marginally lower in January, but outside of the USA, oil production remains robust with rises registered in most producing areas. Production in Iran has begun to rise with 80,000 bpd added in January. US and global rig counts are in steep decline while drilling in the Middle East remains close to all time highs. Continue reading

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Oil Price Scenarios for 2016

Let’s cut to the quick. My forecast for Brent at around this time next year in my BAU scenario is $37. This is grim reading for all those involved in and around the oil industry. Worse still, I think there is high probability that we see sub-$20 oil before the first quarter is out. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 100

This week: the UN’s disaster scenarios, stalling global CO2 emissions growth, declining public support for climate action, OPEC to hold the line, Iran’s oil contracts, US oil reserves highest in 42 years, Russia’s escalating standoffs with Ukraine and Turkey, nuclear closures in France, grid reliability in Australia, mini-nukes in UK, supercritical coal in India, Abengoa files for insolvency, CO2-absorbing bubble baths, exploding plankton populations and how climate change caused Hitler. Continue reading

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Iran nuclear deal could pave way to higher output

In a departure from our usual format, this post simply reproduces a part of the August edition of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report (OMR). It provides a time table for the full return of Iran to the oil market and discusses recent action and consequences. The prospect of an additional 1 Mbpd oil coming to the export market is clearly bearish for the oil price. Continue reading

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Blowout week 80

This week’s Blowout features the UK summer budget, which has not been well received by the renewable energy industry:

More below the fold on the UK budget fallout, plus the increasing US rig count, decreasing US shale oil production costs, Iran plans to double oil exports, Rosatom in bed with South Africa, Greece doing pipeline deal with Russia, Gazprom not paying its bills, 2,100 new coal plants planned worldwide, UK’s last underground coal mine closes, New England states having difficulty meeting emissions targets, Prince Charles sounds off again, Bill Gates trashes renewables, a new all-electric truck from BMW, another CCS project down, 20ft of sea level rise swallowing America and the end of rare earth mining in the US.

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Blowout week 69

The oil just keeps on coming: More on the oil glut below the fold, plus fracking and earthquakes in the US, grass-to-gas conversion in UK, Drax pellet demand, nuclear in Japan and China, coal miners march in protest in Germany, Pakistan bans wind and solar, the Yellowstone “supervolcano”, the zero-carbon airliner of the future (complete with CO2 scrubber), the GWPF launches an enquiry into adjustments to temperature records (h/t A.C. Osborn) and how the tragic deaths in the Mediterranean are precisely in line with the predictions of climate security analysts.
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Rig Count Update March / April 2015

The global rig count statistics published by Baker Hughes provide a crucial industry activity indicator and some of the most up to date industry statistics available. This is a short report updating international statistics to March 2015 and US statistics to 10 April 2015. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 66

The focus this week is on the recent nuclear agreement with Iran. What happens if sanctions on Iran are lifted?

More on Iran and the Middle East below the fold, plus leaks at nuclear plants, layoffs at Hinkley, smart grids, the coal glut, Europe falling behind in renewables, Republican senators going after the EPA, methane emissions from hydro plants and a temperature record that wasn’t.

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Blowout Week 53

A lot of Americans living here in Mexico – including my neighbors – are climate refugees from the Pacific Northwest.

More stories below the fold, including the requisite dose of oil and OPEC, oil exports from the US, natural gas from Australia, US fuel in Ukranian nuclear plants, trees absorbing more CO2 than expected, tidal power in Canada and Scotland, carbon-free cities, EON spins off fossil fuels, decorator wind turbines and a new low point for climate change attribution – the crash of AirAsia flight MZ8501. Continue reading

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Oil Exports from the Middle East and the Price of Oil

Oil exports from the Middle East Gulf States amounted to 19.6 million barrels per day in 2013 [BP] equivalent to 22.6% of total global oil production and 43% of OECD oil consumption. The importance of the region to the well being of the global economy cannot be overstated. It is therefore pertinent to ask what risk ISIS presents to the stability of the region and its oil supplies. History has some clues. Continue reading

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