Tag Archives: lto

Global Production Up One Million bpd in March

Global oil production rose sharply in March by 1 Mbpd and we have a new peak in global total liquids production of 95.24Mbpd. But with the oil price currently resilient, it seems likely that surge in production may have reversed.
The plunge in US oil rig count has resumed. Oil plus gas rig count stood at 905 on May 1, just above the low point reached in the post financial crash period.
I anticipate that the price bottom may be in but that price will bounce sideways along bottom for several months until we see significant falls in OECD production. There is as yet little sign of a significant drop in US production.
The current action appears to be demand driven, the low price raising demand more than it is suppressing supplies. Continue reading

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Rig Count Update March / April 2015

The global rig count statistics published by Baker Hughes provide a crucial industry activity indicator and some of the most up to date industry statistics available. This is a short report updating international statistics to March 2015 and US statistics to 10 April 2015. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics: March 2015

World total liquids down 40,000 bpd
OPEC down 240,000 bpd
N America down 10,000 bpd
Russia and FSU down 70,000 bpd
UK and Norway down 40,000 bpd (compared with January 2014)
Asia up 60,000 bpd Continue reading

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Broken Energy Markets and the Downside of Hubbert’s Peak

The current “low oil price crisis” is providing a clear and new perspective on the nature of the peak oil problem. If low price does indeed destroy high cost production capacity then this will raise the question if the high cost sources can ever be brought back? IF low price kills the shale industry can it come back from the dead? Continue reading

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Blowout week 48 – OPEC special

The big news this week is OPEC’s decision not to support oil prices by cutting production, so that’s what we lead off with… Continue reading

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The 2014 Oil Price Crash Explained

In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).

This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel. Continue reading

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