Tag Archives: oil price crash

Oil Production Vital Statistics October 2016

The post-November 2015 production decline was accentuated by the Fort McMurray wild fire in Canada in May 2016. But overprinting all this is Iran coming back to full production with a YOY rise of 760,000 bpd combined with large rises in Saudi and Russian production.

The oil price is pressing on its $51 / bbl resistance. With OPEC spare capacity approaching lows and global production fast approaching balance, we can look forward to a rally in the oil price towards $65 / bbl (perhaps higher) some time in 2017. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , | 16 Comments

Blowout Week 145

In this weeks bumper blowout: OPEC deal and oil prices; major oil find in Alaska; North Sea drilling plunges; floating nuclear in Russia; Russia suspends plutonium agreement; coal mining in India, China, USA and Poland; too much renewables; the Australian outblack; global super grid; Gibralter rules the waves; megadrought in America; fracking in the UK; coal gasification in Scotland; kite power in Scotland; UAH global warming at +0.44˚C. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

USA Energy Independence Day

It has been 3 years since I last looked at US energy statistics and a recent conversation has prompted me to revisit the topic. Is the USA close to energy independence? The answer is surprisingly yes! In 2007 the USA imported 708 Mtoe (million tonnes oil equivalent) of energy, mainly crude oil. In 2015, that had fallen to 234 Mtoe. The rate of decline is 59.25 Mtoe per annum and if the trend continues the USA will be energy independent in 4 years. It is to be anticipated that the oil price crash will impact oil production in 2016 and 2017 but I wouldn’t bet against the US becoming energy independent in the early years of the next decade. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 18 Comments

Blowout Week 144

This week’s Blowout features a blackout, specifically the long-anticipated outage that plunged South Australia into darkness last week. But it was caused by strong winds that took down transmission lines, not by too much wind power on the grid. Or was it? Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 36 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics August 2016

World total liquids bounced by a further 790,000 bpd in July partly on the back of continued recovery in Canada. Total liquids now stand at 97.01 Mbpd, down a meagre 70,000 bpd since July 2015.

The oil price staged a modest cyclical rally in August to close at $48.5 (Brent) on August 19th. Robust production from OPEC and Russia combined with large inventories hanging over the market makes me inclined to agree with Art Berman who speculates that prices will remain range bound between £38 and $52 in the near term. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Blowout Week 137

This week we return to Hinkley Point, where yet another potentially deal-breaking complication has arisen as a result of the US filing suit against the China General Nuclear Power Company – a 33.5% stakeholder in Hinkley – for nuclear espionage. China has warned that retaliatory measures may be taken if the UK now dumps Hinkley. So what happens next? Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 59 Comments

What is the Real Cost of Oil?

Asking what it costs to produce a barrel of oil is rather like asking how long is a piece of string? The answer can be anything you want between $1 and $500. But of course the cost of producing oil in an ideal world should be well below the price of oil, leaving room for taxes and profits. The global oil market sets the price and producers need to adjust and adapt their strategies to maintain costs below prevailing prices from time to time. That is the theory at least. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 38 Comments

The Peak Oil Paradox

Back in the mid-noughties the peak oil meme gained significant traction in part due to The Oil Drum blog where I played a prominent role. Sharply rising oil price, OPEC spare capacity falling below 2 Mbpd and the decline of the North Sea were definite signs of scarcity and many believed that peak oil was at hand and the world as we knew it was about to end. And yet between 2008, when the oil price peaked, and 2015, global crude+condensate+NGL production has risen by 8.85 Mbpd to 91.67 Mbpd. Peak oilers need to admit they were wrong then. Or were they? Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , | 63 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics June 2016

The big news in May’s production figures is Canada down 620,000 bpd in the wake of the Fort McMurray wild fire, Nigeria down 250,000 bpd in the wake of civil unrest on the Niger Delta and Libya down 80,000 bpd as that country disintegrates in the wake of western intervention in its civil war.

Global total liquids production was down 760,000 bpd in May and while the oil price was perky, getting above $50 in early June, it has not really responded to any of those events. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

Blowout Week 129

This week’s Blowout focuses on the distressed UK North Sea oil & gas industry followed by speculators foresee $100 oil, Norway’s oil & gas fields lose $50 billion in value, oil industry to cut $1 trillion in spending, squabbles over US Arctic oil leasing, another blow to Japan’s nuclear renaissance, the first US reactor startup in 20 years, bleak outlook for Australia’s brown coal plants, India cancels 16GW of coal, Brexit’s impact on energy investment, smart meters not needed for an EU grid after all, solar potential in Ireland, the National Grid should be broken up, a new submarine cable to France and Obama’s energy storage initiative. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 30 Comments

Blowout Week 128

This week we focus on Germany’s Energiewende followed by turning the C in CCS into rock, further job losses expected in UK oil and gas, forecast decline in non-OPEC oil supplies, England not windy enough, unscheduled global oil supply disruptions, more US oil patch bankruptcies, Westinghouse to build nuclear plants in India, Sweden goes nuclear again, Finland to build another nuclear plant, “incident” shuts down Tihange plant, signs of recovery in coal, Brexit to cause loss of UK energy sovereignty, ENSO events influence global temperatures for hundreds of years. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 31 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics May 2016

The big news in April’s production numbers is the surge in global production by 250,000 bpd that is largely down to a 300,000 bpd surge from Iran that the IEA now deems to be producing at capacity. The oil price rally continued through May into June with Brent now over $50 supported by the Fort McMurray black swan and growing unrest in the Niger Delta that the WSJ reports has knocked 1 Mbpd off Nigeria’s production. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Blowout Week 127

Global temperatures falling, two Illinois nuclear plants to close, UK solar house-holds to pay insurance for grid access, more threats from Niger Delta Avengers, gas guzzler sales rise, first oil shipment from Yamal, Merkel puts brakes on the Energiewende, fule shortages in France, UK to reconsider coal shutdown, more islands seek 100% renewables, a brighter future for North Sea oil, microbe energy storage, Brexit, US-Russia nuclear cooperation, the Fukushima “ice wall” and why the world isn’t going to meet the 2˚C warming goal. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 24 Comments

Blowout Week 126

This weeks’ stories include Brexit and investment in renewables, oil discoveries at their lowest level since 1952, Saudi strategy paying off, nuclear in Egypt and South Africa, coal in Japan, Nigeria on the brink of collapse, nuclear workers strike in France, oil breaks $50/bbl, yet another setback for Hinkley Point, the EC to lend Spain 2.13 billion to shut down coal plants, the EIB forks out 525 million for the Beatrice wind farm, energy independence for Israel, G7 nations to end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, Australia opts out of latest UN climate change report, goodbye El Niño and hello La Niña, the CERN cloud experiment casts doubt on global warming predictions, the “internet of things” and how climate change is poisoning our food. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Blowout week 125

Fire at Ivanpah Concentrated Solar Plant in California, Trump to renegotiate Paris climate deal if elected, Portugal runs on renewables for 4 days, the Saudi bond issue, Anglesey nuclear plant moves ahead, EU plan causes nuclear uproar in Germany, Japan lagging in divesting coal, South Australia running on renewables, Tory MPs favor Swansea Bay tidal, Nigerian militants control the global oil market, a cabinet shuffle in Scotland, Portland, Oregon bans “climate change denial” books in schools, possible blackouts in Southern California, Google’s human flypaper and Pakistan digs mass graves for anticipated future climate change victims. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 23 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics April 2016

Most regions experienced production losses in March with the exceptions of Iran (+80,000 bpd) and Europe (+90,000 bpd compared with a year ago). Total liquids were down -260,000 bpd for a loss of -990,000 bpd since the peak last July. The oil price rally has continued with WTI on $44 as I write. While many signs point to the worst of the rout being over it remains premature to declare that it is over.

Drilling continues to decline across the board with US oil+gas rigs = 420, this is the lowest level of US drilling for over 20 years. Two strongly opposing forces control the near and medium term destiny of the oil market. The collapse in drilling must surely lead to an acceleration of production decline near term. Offset by the ever present risk of shale drillers returning to action on the back of a continued price rally. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , | 32 Comments

Can OPEC “freeze” production, or is it already frozen?

Between June and December 2014 the price of OPEC’s oil “market basket” fell from over $100/bbl to less than $50/bbl, causing considerable hardship to the OPEC countries who rely on oil exports to finance their national budgets – which is all twelve of them. Under these circumstances the logical reaction for a cash-strapped, oil-rich country would be to pump more oil to increase revenues , yet only two – Saudi Arabia and Iraq – actually did so. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016

Since the possible double bottom at $26 formed on February 11th the oil price has staged a rally to $40 (WTI). Traders lucky enough to buy at $26 and sell at $40 have pocketed a tidy 54% profit. Very few will have been this lucky. The trade was stimulated by news that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to not increase production this year which is hollow news since neither country could significantly increase production no matter how hard they tried. Profit taking has now driven WTI back towards $37 as of 1 April. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 19 Comments

Blowout Week 118

This week we focus on solar power in the United States. A report by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory has concluded that the country can fill 39% of its electricity needs with rooftop solar PV alone. And that doesn’t include the “immense potential” of ground-mounted PV units. Is an all-solar America on the horizon? Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 23 Comments

Blowout Week 117

UK coal plant shutdowns, energy price volatility, the bloated US natural gas supply, the OPEC Doha meeting, Brexit backers and Gazprom calumniate Amber Rudd, IS terrorists threaten Belgian nuclear plants, Peabody Coal claims reports of its death are exaggerated, Tesla’s Powerwall battery wins award, EU renewables investment on the skids, Switzerland’s utilities now feeling the pain of low wholesale prices….. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 21 Comments