Tag Archives: rig count

Oil Production Vital Statistics December 2016

Global total liquids production hit yet another record high of 98.24 Mbpd in November led by OPEC and Russia! Libya’s drive to restore production is a significant factor with production up 280,000 bpd from recent lows. The US oil rig count has risen for 32 consecutive weeks and US oil production has stopped falling. Production from the North Sea and Asia are in decline as the past low price and drive to restore profitability works through the system. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics November 2016

In October, global total liquids production hit a new record high of 97.84 Mbpd led by OPEC and Russia! This was caused largely by the scramble to boost production ahead of production cuts with a datum on October 2016. The US rig count continues to rise and US production has stopped falling. The rest of the oil production world outside of OPEC, N America and Russia continues to suffer under the weight of low oil price. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics August 2016

World total liquids bounced by a further 790,000 bpd in July partly on the back of continued recovery in Canada. Total liquids now stand at 97.01 Mbpd, down a meagre 70,000 bpd since July 2015.

The oil price staged a modest cyclical rally in August to close at $48.5 (Brent) on August 19th. Robust production from OPEC and Russia combined with large inventories hanging over the market makes me inclined to agree with Art Berman who speculates that prices will remain range bound between £38 and $52 in the near term. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics July 2016

Global total liquids bounced by +600,000 bpd in June as Canada partially recovered from the Fort McMurray wild fire and Saudi Arabia flexed its muscles raising production by 200,000 bpd compared with May.

Not surprisingly the oil price has wilted to the vicinity of $43 / bbl. But Bull and Bear forces are beginning to equilibrate. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics May 2016

The big news in April’s production numbers is the surge in global production by 250,000 bpd that is largely down to a 300,000 bpd surge from Iran that the IEA now deems to be producing at capacity. The oil price rally continued through May into June with Brent now over $50 supported by the Fort McMurray black swan and growing unrest in the Niger Delta that the WSJ reports has knocked 1 Mbpd off Nigeria’s production. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics April 2016

Most regions experienced production losses in March with the exceptions of Iran (+80,000 bpd) and Europe (+90,000 bpd compared with a year ago). Total liquids were down -260,000 bpd for a loss of -990,000 bpd since the peak last July. The oil price rally has continued with WTI on $44 as I write. While many signs point to the worst of the rout being over it remains premature to declare that it is over.

Drilling continues to decline across the board with US oil+gas rigs = 420, this is the lowest level of US drilling for over 20 years. Two strongly opposing forces control the near and medium term destiny of the oil market. The collapse in drilling must surely lead to an acceleration of production decline near term. Offset by the ever present risk of shale drillers returning to action on the back of a continued price rally. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 121

This week more on OPEC and oil, Russia and Norway struggle to preserve gas market share, China’s floating nuclear plants, Poland’s new wind law, Germany tells Begium to shut down nuclear plants, electronics from coal, there is no Obama “war on coal”, 100% renewables for Australia and for Europe too via the MENA supergrid, SNP wants 50% renewables by 2020, UK shale oil ready to boom, Hinkley delayed yet again, objections to Drax subsidies, the Times says the wrong things about climate change and Subsidy Sam – the answer to Tommy Turbine. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 120

To provide a little light relief from weightier issues this week’s Blowout features the extraordinary capacity of the human mind to invent new ways of generating low-carbon energy. We already generate biogas from rotting garbage, waste food, vegetable oils and animal manure, and now we generate it from – cheese: Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2016

Market fundamentals point to chronic over-supply of crude oil throughout 2016. The technicals point to the makings of an oil price rally. A strong price rally from current levels may extend the situation of chronic over-supply that may have a debilitating impact on the oil price and the oil industry for years to come. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics December 2015

The oil just keeps on gushing. All of the main producing regions posted gains in November. As expected, the oil price tested lows on the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern and carried on down this month heading for lows last seen in December 2008. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics November 2015

The day of reckoning has arrived for the oil price with the head and shoulders pattern I have been tracking for two months finally completing in recent weeks. It became a rather drawn out affair with markets awaiting the outcome of the OPEC meeting of 4 December. In the event, OPEC elected to stay the course and did nothing. With WTI closing at $40 and Brent on $43 on Friday both are testing support levels. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 101

The focus this week is on OPEC and the lack of action there until at least June and on COP21 talks in Paris. Astronauts on the Space Station have warned of dire consequences of climate change and deforestation visible from space while the EU approves a £1 billion subsidy to convert Lynemouth coal power station to burn wood pellets imported from North America. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 100

This week: the UN’s disaster scenarios, stalling global CO2 emissions growth, declining public support for climate action, OPEC to hold the line, Iran’s oil contracts, US oil reserves highest in 42 years, Russia’s escalating standoffs with Ukraine and Turkey, nuclear closures in France, grid reliability in Australia, mini-nukes in UK, supercritical coal in India, Abengoa files for insolvency, CO2-absorbing bubble baths, exploding plankton populations and how climate change caused Hitler. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 99

Read on to learn about backfiring OPEC strategy, the plight of Canada’s oil producers, the US rig count (down again), hope for the North Sea, Luxembourg joining Austria in the Hinkley suit, the EU-Hungary nuclear dispute, OECD to cut coal plant financing, coal output in India to double, high winds shut down German turbines……. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics October 2015

The “big news” this month is that the banks granted over leveraged, loss making shale oil drillers a stay of execution by continuing to provide credit lines. Consequently, there was no major move in US oil drilling or production though both are trending down. Continue reading

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Blowout week 96

US shale oil gets a stay of execution, coal-to-liquids in Botswana, CSP in Morocco, wind in the Irish Sea, CO2 emissions to keep rising, dismal earnings from oil majors, Turkey sues Gazprom, China to build offshore nukes, German coal plants now “facilities of last resort”…. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics September 2015

With momentous events unfolding on the World stage, the oil market continues to evolve at a glacial pace. Global total liquids production was 96.29 Mbpd in August, down 630,000 bpd from the June peak. But with over-supply running at over 3 Mbpd during the second quarter, there is still a long way to go to rebalance the system. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics August 2015

The main action this month has been on the oil price that continued to slide. Both WTI and Brent set new post-crisis lows but saw sharp reversals on 27th and 28th August last week. Global oil production data remains in its up trend although there are signs from the regions that this may be slowing and reversing. Monthly data revisions continue to obscure the real picture. Continue reading

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Blowout week 87

This week’s Blowout features a drought. Not the California drought, which is hardly unprecedented, but one that is – the drought in major US hurricane landfalls. It is now almost ten years since the last major hurricane made landfall in the US, the longest drought since records began in 1851: Continue reading

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Blowout Week 84

Stories below the fold include: Saudia Arabia borrowing money, BP to invest in N. Sea oil, nuclear risks are all in the mind, renewables self-destructing, Jeremy Corbyn on rooftop solar and nationalization, Germany’s neighbors blocking imports of unwanted German wind & solar…. Continue reading

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