Tag Archives: rig count

Oil Production Vital Statistics July 2015

The US oil directed rig count was up 31 for the month of July and WTI is down about $11 for the month at time of writing. Global total liquids production was up 540,000 bpd in June. The production momentum built in recent years is proving very difficult to switch off. Continue reading

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US Shale Oil: drilling productivity and decline rates

The main message from this post is that a precipitous fall in US production in the months ahead, upon which most analysts are depending upon to send the oil price higher, may not materialise YET. This is simply the end of round one of the current oil price crisis and the standoff between US shale and OPEC.

Is it good news or bad news that US oil production may not collapse (yet) under the weight of low oil price? It’s certainly good news for US energy security…… Continue reading

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“The bottom of the market may still be ahead”

The title of this post, “The bottom of the market may still be ahead”, is the last line of the July IEA OMR summary. Those companies and investors hoping for an early end to this low price crisis may be disappointed. Global supply was up again in June by 550,000 bpd. Demand growth looks set to slow. Inventories are at record levels. And not surprisingly prices have once again yielded to the gravity of glut and have fallen below $60 / bbl. To add insult to injury US oil rig count has risen these last two weeks and UK North Sea oil production looks set to rise in the years ahead. Continue reading

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Blowout week 80

This week’s Blowout features the UK summer budget, which has not been well received by the renewable energy industry:

More below the fold on the UK budget fallout, plus the increasing US rig count, decreasing US shale oil production costs, Iran plans to double oil exports, Rosatom in bed with South Africa, Greece doing pipeline deal with Russia, Gazprom not paying its bills, 2,100 new coal plants planned worldwide, UK’s last underground coal mine closes, New England states having difficulty meeting emissions targets, Prince Charles sounds off again, Bill Gates trashes renewables, a new all-electric truck from BMW, another CCS project down, 20ft of sea level rise swallowing America and the end of rare earth mining in the US.

Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics July 2015 – equilibrium reached

During May and June the oil price has stabilised and both WTI and Brent spot prices have converged on $60 / bbl; the US oil rig count is still falling, but slowly; oil production from all regions is stable hence global total liquids production is trending sideways on the back recent sharp rises. It appears that oil market equilibrium has been reached. Past experience tells us that this is unlikely to last long. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 78

This week’s Blowout features an intriguing new power generation concept – the offshore floating nuclear plant, which in the example shown below would generate five times as much electricity as the Swansea Bay tidal lagoons while taking up only 0.01% as much sea room: Continue reading

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Global Production Up One Million bpd in March

Global oil production rose sharply in March by 1 Mbpd and we have a new peak in global total liquids production of 95.24Mbpd. But with the oil price currently resilient, it seems likely that surge in production may have reversed.
The plunge in US oil rig count has resumed. Oil plus gas rig count stood at 905 on May 1, just above the low point reached in the post financial crash period.
I anticipate that the price bottom may be in but that price will bounce sideways along bottom for several months until we see significant falls in OECD production. There is as yet little sign of a significant drop in US production.
The current action appears to be demand driven, the low price raising demand more than it is suppressing supplies. Continue reading

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Rig Count Update March / April 2015

The global rig count statistics published by Baker Hughes provide a crucial industry activity indicator and some of the most up to date industry statistics available. This is a short report updating international statistics to March 2015 and US statistics to 10 April 2015. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 67

This week marks the 200th anniversary of the eruption of Tambora in Indonesia, the largest volcanic eruption yet witnessed by humans (although not the loudest. The eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 was heard almost 3,000 miles away).

Below the fold we have another rig count decrease, more production from Saudi Arabia, more nukes from Rosatom, an oil discovery at Gatwick Airport, a blackout in Washington DC caused by a coal plant closure, Denmark and Germany squabbling over Danish wind imports, storing energy in hybrid flywheels, making hydrogen from corn husks, the Shell/BG acquisition, how CO2 emissions threaten another mass species extinction and “The Blob”.
Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics: April 2015

Global oil production is declining slowly but remains just above its long-term trend. Just over 94.04 Mbpd was produced in February.

The recovery in the oil price in February reversed in March and WTI has tested its January lows. Spreading conflict in the Middle East adds further complexity to the price dynamic.

The plunge in US oil rig count has slowed significantly although still falling slowly. This may signal a new phase of the oil price war that is discussed at the end of this post. Continue reading

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Middle East OPEC Oil Rig Count Jumps 14%

As if to rub salt in the wounds of the US shale industry, Middle East OPEC oil rig count has jumped by 19 rigs to 155 units in February 2015 setting a new rig count record for the region. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics: March 2015

World total liquids down 40,000 bpd
OPEC down 240,000 bpd
N America down 10,000 bpd
Russia and FSU down 70,000 bpd
UK and Norway down 40,000 bpd (compared with January 2014)
Asia up 60,000 bpd Continue reading

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Oil Price Crash Update

The price plunge seems to have reversed, at least for the time being (more on that below). But the most stunning data is the free fall in US oil drilling rigs shown in Figure 1, down 553 (34%) from the October top. The IEA also published their Oil Market Report early this month, on 10th February, reporting oil supplies were down 235,000 bpd in January, mainly in OPEC countries Iraq and Libya. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics – February 2015

The main oil production changes from November to December are:

World total liquids up 150,000 bpd
OPEC up 80,000 bpd
N America up 80,000 bpd
Russia and FSU up 180,000 bpd
Europe down 70,000 bpd (compared with December 2013)
Asia down 60,000 bpd Continue reading

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Blowout Week 55

The verdict is in. 2014 was the warmest year on record: Or was it?

Stories on oil prices, OPEC, layoffs in the petroleum industry, Russia losing its natural gas clout in Europe, France wanting more nuclear plants, blades falling off wind turbines in Scotland, the US Senate voting on whether climate change is real, energy storage using methane and a hybrid wind/solar generator below the fold: Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics – January 2015

This is the first in a monthly series of posts chronicling the action in the global oil market in 11 key charts.

The oil price crash of 2014 / 15 is following the same pace of the 2008 crash. The 2008 crash was demand driven and began 2 months ahead of the broader market crash.

The US oil rig count peaked in October 2014, is down 127 rigs from peak and is falling fast.

Production in OPEC, Russia and FSU, China and SE Asia and in the North Sea are all stable to falling slowly. The bogey in the pack is the USA where a production rise of 4 Mbpd in 4 years has upset the global supply dynamic.

It is unreasonable for the OECD IEA to expect Saudi Arabia to cut production of cheap oil in order to create market capacity for expensive US oil.

There are likely both over supply and weak demand factors at play, weighted towards the latter. Continue reading

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History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme

Note how peaks and troughs in drilling lag the oil price. The oil price has now broken down and I believe it is inevitable that drilling follows. Never before has US oil production been so heavily linked to drilling activity. Continue reading

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