Tag Archives: russia

Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2017

January was the month that OPEC was supposed to reduce production by 1.2 Mbpd and Russia + others were supposed to cut a further 0.6 Mbpd. None of the January production data has been released yet and the only real time indicator we have is the oil price that began the month of January on $55.05 and ended the month on $54.77 (Brent) (Figure 1). The only remarkable thing is how little market response there has been to the feeble OPEC deal. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 158

The signatories to the the Paris Climate Agreement, who include just about every country in the world, agree that the world must cut its fossil fuel emissions drastically if global climate catastrophe is to be avoided. Yet according to Exxon’s just-released Energy Outlook (the IEA and EIA outlooks are similar) the world will be burning more fossil fuels in 2040 than it is now. Does this mean that the world is doomed? Or is somebody missing something?

We continue with stories on the fallout from OPEC’s production cut, followed by nuclear in the US, France, Sweden and China, coal in China and Australia, renewables in China, Europe, and Germany, recent events in UK, roads that recharge EVs in Israel, 2016 ties 1998 for the warmest year on record in the lower troposphere and India solves the carbon capture and storage problem.
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Oil Production Vital Statistics November 2016

In October, global total liquids production hit a new record high of 97.84 Mbpd led by OPEC and Russia! This was caused largely by the scramble to boost production ahead of production cuts with a datum on October 2016. The US rig count continues to rise and US production has stopped falling. The rest of the oil production world outside of OPEC, N America and Russia continues to suffer under the weight of low oil price. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 152

This week we begin with Trump’ plans for Nigel Farage and continue with the Obama administration’s rush to push more regulations through, Saudis pull out of oil talks with Russia, oil potential in Mexico, pipeline gridlock in Canada, Gazprom pushes ahead with Nord Stream, Swiss to vote on nuclear phaseout, gas to ride to the rescue in France, Canada to phase out coal, snow, coal and gas in Tokyo and Beijing, the Torness nuclear outage, EU to challenge capacity markets, more UK funding for EVs, protected European forests being felled for biomass, Scott, Shackleton and Antarctic ice, how cement absorbs carbon (which is not the enemy) and the Pacific island of Ta’u, now 100% powered by solar. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 151

We begin with the Wolfcamp shale oil play in Texas and continue with the requisite dose of Trump articles, following up with Obama’s ban on Arctic drilling, Russia makes $6 billion simply by talking to OPEC, the North Sea O&G industry pleads for support, fossil fuel era “far from over”, Vietnam cans a nuclear plant, the Chernobyl Arch is moving, Asia to underpin coal demand, France to shut down coal, the Marrakech Climate Conference, global CO2 emissions not growing, vegetation slows atmospheric CO2 increase, the EU to introduce capacity mechanisms, the UK’s carbon price floor, tidal power generation in Scotland, the renewables threat to grid stability, large wind farms reduce wind speeds, a hot North Pole and a cold Siberia, UK research institute accused of misconduct and fraud, lithium from geothermal brines and what Donald Trump thinks of Scotland. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 121

This week more on OPEC and oil, Russia and Norway struggle to preserve gas market share, China’s floating nuclear plants, Poland’s new wind law, Germany tells Begium to shut down nuclear plants, electronics from coal, there is no Obama “war on coal”, 100% renewables for Australia and for Europe too via the MENA supergrid, SNP wants 50% renewables by 2020, UK shale oil ready to boom, Hinkley delayed yet again, objections to Drax subsidies, the Times says the wrong things about climate change and Subsidy Sam – the answer to Tommy Turbine. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016

Since the possible double bottom at $26 formed on February 11th the oil price has staged a rally to $40 (WTI). Traders lucky enough to buy at $26 and sell at $40 have pocketed a tidy 54% profit. Very few will have been this lucky. The trade was stimulated by news that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to not increase production this year which is hollow news since neither country could significantly increase production no matter how hard they tried. Profit taking has now driven WTI back towards $37 as of 1 April. Continue reading

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OPEC Can’t Win

Cheap oil is a major benefit to the US economy. Cheap oil reduces the cost of US oil imports and is good for the trade balance. The lost value of indigenous oil production in the US is of little consequence to its gigantic economy.

In contrast, oil production is the major part of OPEC GDP, especially the Gulf states that have rather undiversified economies. The drop to $50 is a disaster for them. With WTI flirting with near term lows (on $40.73) , the time of reckoning is nigh for the oil price. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics September 2015

With momentous events unfolding on the World stage, the oil market continues to evolve at a glacial pace. Global total liquids production was 96.29 Mbpd in August, down 630,000 bpd from the June peak. But with over-supply running at over 3 Mbpd during the second quarter, there is still a long way to go to rebalance the system. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 79

The usual eclectic assortment below the fold, including record OPEC production, Russia cuts off gas to Ukraine again, electricity bills to rise in California, Greenpeace sues Hinkley, Mexico auctions oilfields, EPA asked to regulate CO2 as a toxic substance, Japan checks out Hebrides renewables, Rosatom dominating world nuclear market, climate talks moving at a snail’s pace, robots at Fukushima, Scots fed up with wind farms, and dwarf cows, a new weapon in the fight against global warming: Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics June 2015

World total liquids production up 460,000 bpd to 95.7 mbpd
OPEC production up 160,000 bpd to 31.21 mbpd (C+C)
N America production down 250,000 bpd to 19.55 mbpd
Russia and FSU down 10,000 bpd to 14.05 mbpd
Europe down 20,000 bpd to 3.45 mbpd (compared with April 2014)
Asia down 149,000 bpd to 7.86 mbpd Continue reading

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Blowout week 69

The oil just keeps on coming: More on the oil glut below the fold, plus fracking and earthquakes in the US, grass-to-gas conversion in UK, Drax pellet demand, nuclear in Japan and China, coal miners march in protest in Germany, Pakistan bans wind and solar, the Yellowstone “supervolcano”, the zero-carbon airliner of the future (complete with CO2 scrubber), the GWPF launches an enquiry into adjustments to temperature records (h/t A.C. Osborn) and how the tragic deaths in the Mediterranean are precisely in line with the predictions of climate security analysts.
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Forging Arctic Heat

Arctic warming is still very much in the news and there is on-going concern that this may cause accelerated melting of permafrost, release of even more CO2 and methane and a form of runaway warming. A little known “fact” is that many parts of the Arctic were just as warm around 1940 as they are today. This is a theme I will return to shortly with a few more comprehensive data sets. In this short post I simply want to take another look at the two records close to Yamal – Ostrov Dikson and Salehard – that I mentioned in my recent post on the Yamal “vent”. Continue reading

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The Hunt for Global Warming: Moscow and Urban Heating

34 climate stations centred on Moscow are divided into three groups: 1) Large cities over 1 million 2) large towns and small cities 20,000 to 1 million and 3) Rural 20,000 and less.

The warming trend through the large cities is +2˚C since 1880. The warming trend through the rural records is +1.2˚C since 1880. The large towns and small cities lie close to but slightly warmer than the rural records. There is clear evidence for urban warming. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 64

This week we feature Germany, which has successfully weathered the recent solar eclipse that threatened to play havoc with the German grid:

More stories below the fold, including OPEC and its victims, Longannet, Superstorm Sandy and sea level rise, progess at Fukushima, Scots want more wind power, the coming wave of bankruptcies in coal, the Royal Society’s pronouncements on climate change challenged, Norwegian pension funds and how Al Gore wants to put a price on climate denial.

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Blowout Week 59

Stories below the fold, including whither oil prices, is OPEC winning, blackouts in S. Africa, nuclear in Egypt, China discovers gas in disputed waters, UK and Austria at loggerheads over Hinkley, Groningen gas curtailment, Germany to legalize fracking and how climate change will cause megadroughts in the US. Continue reading

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Blowout week 56

This week we condense OPEC, oil prices, Ukraine, Russia, energy shortages, climate change, terrorism, the European Union, Fukushima, Ed Davey and everything else that ails the world into one featured article: Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics – January 2015

This is the first in a monthly series of posts chronicling the action in the global oil market in 11 key charts.

The oil price crash of 2014 / 15 is following the same pace of the 2008 crash. The 2008 crash was demand driven and began 2 months ahead of the broader market crash.

The US oil rig count peaked in October 2014, is down 127 rigs from peak and is falling fast.

Production in OPEC, Russia and FSU, China and SE Asia and in the North Sea are all stable to falling slowly. The bogey in the pack is the USA where a production rise of 4 Mbpd in 4 years has upset the global supply dynamic.

It is unreasonable for the OECD IEA to expect Saudi Arabia to cut production of cheap oil in order to create market capacity for expensive US oil.

There are likely both over supply and weak demand factors at play, weighted towards the latter. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 53

A lot of Americans living here in Mexico – including my neighbors – are climate refugees from the Pacific Northwest.

More stories below the fold, including the requisite dose of oil and OPEC, oil exports from the US, natural gas from Australia, US fuel in Ukranian nuclear plants, trees absorbing more CO2 than expected, tidal power in Canada and Scotland, carbon-free cities, EON spins off fossil fuels, decorator wind turbines and a new low point for climate change attribution – the crash of AirAsia flight MZ8501. Continue reading

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Blowout week 52

We complete our first Blowout Year with attention refocused on the harsh realities of the marketplace.

More related stories below the fold, plus the NATO threat to Russia, growth in coal, NIMBY in Germany, the UK capacity auction, increased public support for nuclear, how global warming caused by squirrels may turn Siberia into a time bomb and US indifference to farting cows. Continue reading

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