Tag Archives: saudi arabia

Blowout Week 152

This week we begin with Trump’ plans for Nigel Farage and continue with the Obama administration’s rush to push more regulations through, Saudis pull out of oil talks with Russia, oil potential in Mexico, pipeline gridlock in Canada, Gazprom pushes ahead with Nord Stream, Swiss to vote on nuclear phaseout, gas to ride to the rescue in France, Canada to phase out coal, snow, coal and gas in Tokyo and Beijing, the Torness nuclear outage, EU to challenge capacity markets, more UK funding for EVs, protected European forests being felled for biomass, Scott, Shackleton and Antarctic ice, how cement absorbs carbon (which is not the enemy) and the Pacific island of Ta’u, now 100% powered by solar. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 26 Comments

The Aramco IPO and the Black Art of Estimating Oil Reserves

Saudi Arabia has announced that 5% of state owned Aramco is to be put up for sale perhaps as early as 2018. As part of the process, the country’s oil reserves will be subject to audit by western consultants, presumably to OECD standards. Given that Saudi Arabia has not adjusted oil reserves for production since 1980 there is a widely held view that the official figure of 267 billion barrels is a gross overstatement of reality. The audit will be interesting to say the least, especially since Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and UAE are all guilty of the same malpractice. Deducting the 156 billion barrels produced since 1936 leaves 110 billion bbls remaining. Only time will tell where reality lies. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , | 26 Comments

Blowout Week 147

This week we return to the South Australian blackout followed by plus Saudi Arabia’s $17.5 billion bond sale, Iran puts up 50 oil & gas projects for lease, the USA’s first nuclear plant in 20 years goes on line, nuclear woes in France, the EU/Canada trade deal falls apart, the world’s largest solar PV farm to be built in Turkey, Vattenfall sues Germany, environmentalists sue Norway, the EPA comes under fire in US courts, UK MPs want more battery storage, UK energy bills to increase, emissions from biofuels, scientists accidentally turn CO2 into ethanol and an apartment block which is a model of sustainable luxury. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics August 2016

World total liquids bounced by a further 790,000 bpd in July partly on the back of continued recovery in Canada. Total liquids now stand at 97.01 Mbpd, down a meagre 70,000 bpd since July 2015.

The oil price staged a modest cyclical rally in August to close at $48.5 (Brent) on August 19th. Robust production from OPEC and Russia combined with large inventories hanging over the market makes me inclined to agree with Art Berman who speculates that prices will remain range bound between £38 and $52 in the near term. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016

Since the possible double bottom at $26 formed on February 11th the oil price has staged a rally to $40 (WTI). Traders lucky enough to buy at $26 and sell at $40 have pocketed a tidy 54% profit. Very few will have been this lucky. The trade was stimulated by news that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to not increase production this year which is hollow news since neither country could significantly increase production no matter how hard they tried. Profit taking has now driven WTI back towards $37 as of 1 April. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 19 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics February 2016

High Oil Price Volatility signals that the market has not yet decided the future direction of the oil price. Global production was marginally lower in January, but outside of the USA, oil production remains robust with rises registered in most producing areas. Production in Iran has begun to rise with 80,000 bpd added in January. US and global rig counts are in steep decline while drilling in the Middle East remains close to all time highs. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 7 Comments

Blowout week 110

Blowout this week includes the trials and tribulations of Saudi Arabia and OPEC, US O&G company ratings cut, Obama proposes $10/bbl tax on US O&G companies, Spain presses EC to save its coal industry, UK and German emissions fall, Hinkley financing concerns spread to Wylfa, Fiddler’s Ferry closure, the world’s largest wind farm and energy storage finally poised for a breakthrough. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 32 Comments

The myth of US self-sufficiency in crude oil

Contrary to general belief, and mis-information by the media the US is far away from being “energy independent” in terms of crude oil imports. Maybe some may find the above analysis statistical hair-splitting but the narrative of US energy independence has shaped public opinion to such an extent that prudence has given way to complacency. There is a danger that wrong geo-strategic views are formed, especially in the context of evolving and worsening conflicts in the Middle East. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 25 Comments

Blowout Week 107

This week’s Blowout features one of the few projected benefits of anthropogenic global warming – it will postpone the onset of the next ice age “by at least 100,000 years”. One assumes our descendants will be duly grateful. Thirty-four more informative stories below the fold in a bumper blowout. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Blowout week 106

We kick off with “Climate Change” and the recent UK floods? Below the fold: Saudi Arabia considers privatizing Aramco, earthquakes in Oklahoma, a natural gas leak in California, TransCanada sues Obama over Keystone, North Sea oil & gas production up, EU investigates Drax subsidy payments, Ed Davey knighted, military intervention to forestall ISIS in Libya, uranium outlook brightens, Greenland wants out of the Paris Agreement, more battery storage in UK, more renewables in Scotland, the 2015 El Niño ties for strongest on record and the new geologic epoch – the Anthropocene. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Blowout week 105

This week’s Blowout features the plight of two of Europe’s major electric power suppliers – RWE and EON – who because of market pricing mechanisms that favor renewable energy over fossil fuel generation are rapidly losing value. What happens if they are driven out of business? Plus Saudi Arabia budgeting for $29 oil in 2016…… Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , | 56 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics December 2015

The oil just keeps on gushing. All of the main producing regions posted gains in November. As expected, the oil price tested lows on the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern and carried on down this month heading for lows last seen in December 2008. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

Blowout Week 103

This week we kick off with Saudi politics. Below the fold different perspectives on the oil price, peak coal, thorium in Indonesia, Belgian reactor restart upsets Germany, Cameron & the EU, Kellingley closure marks end of an era, UK steelmakers get green tax compensation, Donald Trump loses Aberdeen wind farm appeal, Energiewende slows down, renewables face extinction in the Czech Republic…. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Oil Price Scenarios for 2016

Let’s cut to the quick. My forecast for Brent at around this time next year in my BAU scenario is $37. This is grim reading for all those involved in and around the oil industry. Worse still, I think there is high probability that we see sub-$20 oil before the first quarter is out. Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 55 Comments

Blowout week 95

The Saudis claim to be winning the oil war, North Sea in the red, billions in oil industry writedowns, Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions at record low, British steel in trouble, 24 US states sue the EPA, China chips into Hinkley, developed vs. developing countries at the Bonn climate talks, hurricane Patricia, the UK Climate Change Committee report, the first cancer case from Fukushima, Africa’s largest wind farm (with a 60% capacity factor), Einstein wrong, UK blackouts and Norwegian hybrid ships. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Blowout week 86

CO2 emissions are in the news in advance of the forthcoming Paris Climate Conference, and now we learn that CO2 emissions from China, the world’s number one emitter, may have been significantly overestimated. Have they? And if they have, how much difference does it make? Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 33 Comments

Blowout Week 84

Stories below the fold include: Saudia Arabia borrowing money, BP to invest in N. Sea oil, nuclear risks are all in the mind, renewables self-destructing, Jeremy Corbyn on rooftop solar and nationalization, Germany’s neighbors blocking imports of unwanted German wind & solar…. Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 30 Comments

Oil Production Vital Statistics June 2015

World total liquids production up 460,000 bpd to 95.7 mbpd
OPEC production up 160,000 bpd to 31.21 mbpd (C+C)
N America production down 250,000 bpd to 19.55 mbpd
Russia and FSU down 10,000 bpd to 14.05 mbpd
Europe down 20,000 bpd to 3.45 mbpd (compared with April 2014)
Asia down 149,000 bpd to 7.86 mbpd Continue reading

Posted in Energy | Tagged , , , , , | 5 Comments

Blowout week 73

Building on the recent interest in energy storage and the potential for going off-grid, this week we feature the latest offering from the fertile imaginations of the sustainable living enthusiasts – the Ecocapsule:

Stories below the fold on the Ferrybridge closure, Scotland demanding a veto over UK energy decisions, NOPEC – a rival for OPEC, Saudi Arabia to become a renewables powerhouse, nuclear in South Africa and China, coal in India, the Large Hadron Collider sets a new energy record, job losses in the European renewables industry, conflicting views on melting Antarctic ice, how climate change threatens football and immediately following, an interesting contrast in the way two media outlets report what the CEO of Shell said last week:

Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , | 17 Comments

Blowout week 69

The oil just keeps on coming: More on the oil glut below the fold, plus fracking and earthquakes in the US, grass-to-gas conversion in UK, Drax pellet demand, nuclear in Japan and China, coal miners march in protest in Germany, Pakistan bans wind and solar, the Yellowstone “supervolcano”, the zero-carbon airliner of the future (complete with CO2 scrubber), the GWPF launches an enquiry into adjustments to temperature records (h/t A.C. Osborn) and how the tragic deaths in the Mediterranean are precisely in line with the predictions of climate security analysts.
Continue reading

Posted in Blowout | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments