Tag Archives: shale oil

Oil Production Vital Statistics October 2016

The post-November 2015 production decline was accentuated by the Fort McMurray wild fire in Canada in May 2016. But overprinting all this is Iran coming back to full production with a YOY rise of 760,000 bpd combined with large rises in Saudi and Russian production.

The oil price is pressing on its $51 / bbl resistance. With OPEC spare capacity approaching lows and global production fast approaching balance, we can look forward to a rally in the oil price towards $65 / bbl (perhaps higher) some time in 2017. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 139

Elsewhere in this week’s Blowout: Iran / OPEC deal on the cards; China accused of nuclear espionage; UK government looks for ways to torpedo Hinkley Point; Fessenheim nuclear power plant in France to close; coking coal price on the rise; £200 million pumped storage hydro scheme on Lewis; National grid clutching at straw batteries; Telegraph living in the real world; Tesla cramming in more electrons; Human caused climate change started in 1830; Air Africa to run on Woodbines; France opts for tree wind power over nuclear power. Continue reading

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US Shale Oil Production Laid Bare

Enno Peters maintains a web site called Visualizing US Shale Oil Production. This is a wonderful resource for all those interested to understand the history and dynamic of US shale oil. This post is in two parts. It begins with a series of screen captures of Enno’s charts displaying production from the whole USA, the Permian, Eagle Ford, N Dakota (Bakken), Montana and Marcellus plays. Enno’s charts are interactive and readers are encouraged to visit his site to play.

Enno kindly sent me the data that underlies the charts and the second part of this post are a series of my own charts that interogates production, well numbers and decline rates. The legacy production, i.e. the underlying production without new additions, is declining at a rate of 38% per annum. Continue reading

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The Peak Oil Paradox

Back in the mid-noughties the peak oil meme gained significant traction in part due to The Oil Drum blog where I played a prominent role. Sharply rising oil price, OPEC spare capacity falling below 2 Mbpd and the decline of the North Sea were definite signs of scarcity and many believed that peak oil was at hand and the world as we knew it was about to end. And yet between 2008, when the oil price peaked, and 2015, global crude+condensate+NGL production has risen by 8.85 Mbpd to 91.67 Mbpd. Peak oilers need to admit they were wrong then. Or were they? Continue reading

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Blowout week 114

This week: Ocean acidification, OPEC and oil, the Exxon case is referred to the FBI, Congress ups the pressure on NOAA, Germany demands that France shut down Fessenheim, the oil slump undermines the EU’s green agenda, wind power restrictions in Poland, the UK’s first unsubsidized wind farm, UEA abandons its biomass project without telling anyone, Labour wants a Hinkley “Plan B”, the smart energy revolution to save UK consumers £8 billion a year… Continue reading

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The Gatwick Gusher

Rumours are circulating that a hundred billion barrels of oil has just been discovered at Gatwick airport. To place this in context, the UK North Sea has produced around 28 billion barrels of oil since production began in 1975. How could we Brits be so dumb as to miss 100 billion barrels just waiting to be pumped from under the home counties? Continue reading

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Blowout Week 111

This week’s Blowout features the US supreme court’s surprise decision to block Obama’s clean power plan and how it might cause the Paris Climate Accord to unravel. Below the fold a message from US shale producers to OPEC, China’s meltdown-proof reactor, wind and solar in the EU, South Australia, Scotland, California and Morocco, the CSIRO layoffs, the Rugely shutdown, Scotland’s dwindling tax revenues, Swansea Bay tidal takes a hit, Friends of the Earth in trouble over anti-fracking campaign, WWF accused of “involvement in violence & abuse”, the waning El Niño, Christians give up fossil fuels for Lent and UK rig workers no longer fit through escape hatches. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics July 2015

The US oil directed rig count was up 31 for the month of July and WTI is down about $11 for the month at time of writing. Global total liquids production was up 540,000 bpd in June. The production momentum built in recent years is proving very difficult to switch off. Continue reading

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US Shale Oil: drilling productivity and decline rates

The main message from this post is that a precipitous fall in US production in the months ahead, upon which most analysts are depending upon to send the oil price higher, may not materialise YET. This is simply the end of round one of the current oil price crisis and the standoff between US shale and OPEC.

Is it good news or bad news that US oil production may not collapse (yet) under the weight of low oil price? It’s certainly good news for US energy security…… Continue reading

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Blowout week 81

Stories below the fold on the Iran Nuclear deal, Mexico’s lease sale, gas overtakes coal in the US, the nuclear iron curtain, Tories to junk more renewables subsidies, a wind generation record in Denmark, no progress towards Paris, wind, solar, snow & coal in Australia, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, what global warming will do to your loaf of bread and how pot growers are sabotaging Colorado’s energy targets. Continue reading

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Blowout week 77

The usual mix below the fold, including a renewed focus on shale oil, Gatwick gets even bigger, a new Pemex discovery, Grafenrheinfeld and Killingholme plants to close, UK scraps onshore wind subsidy, Spain’s war on solar, war brewing in the Middle East, CO2 emissions from Drax, yet more problems at Hinkley, Minnesota to charge for residential grid hookups and how the Earth is already locked into its sixth major mass species extinction. Continue reading

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Blowout week 74

The usual mix below the fold, including shale oil, the coal crisis in Germany, Austria now to sue the Czech Republic over nuclear, the doomed city of Hull, Exxon’s CEO speaks out on renewables, a solution to the energy storage problem, biofuels and water use, vanishing glaciers on Everest, an ice cream that increases climate change awareness and immediately following, are the EIA’s oil production numbers reliable? Continue reading

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Blowout week 72

This week we focus on the squabble between the UK and Austria over Hinkley Point, which threatens to escalate into a full-blown confrontation that could have far-reaching effects on UK energy security and on the future of nuclear power in Europe. Certainly if an EU member state can delay or stop construction of a nuclear plant in another EU member state simply because it doesn’t like nuclear then the future of nuclear in the EU is gloomy indeed . Continue reading

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US Oil Production Forecast Scenario

Readers are keen to know when US oil production will begin to fall. This is not an easy question to answer but in the comments to last week’s rig count update some interesting links were posted. Among them I came across a link to an Energy Information Agency (EIA) report into US drilling efficiency that sought to link future production to drilling activity and this seemed an interesting avenue to explore. Continue reading

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Oil Price Crash Update

The price plunge seems to have reversed, at least for the time being (more on that below). But the most stunning data is the free fall in US oil drilling rigs shown in Figure 1, down 553 (34%) from the October top. The IEA also published their Oil Market Report early this month, on 10th February, reporting oil supplies were down 235,000 bpd in January, mainly in OPEC countries Iraq and Libya. Continue reading

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Broken Energy Markets and the Downside of Hubbert’s Peak

The current “low oil price crisis” is providing a clear and new perspective on the nature of the peak oil problem. If low price does indeed destroy high cost production capacity then this will raise the question if the high cost sources can ever be brought back? IF low price kills the shale industry can it come back from the dead? Continue reading

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Blowout week 51

We lead off this Blowout week with the ongoing oil price collapse (graph credit NASDAQ).

More related stories below the fold, plus the UK “capacity auction”, US tariffs on Chinese PV panels, India’s advanced heavy water reactor, New York bans fracking, the world’s largest ship, CO2 emissions from the Southern Hemisphere, the Lima climate talks and how hot weekdays are going to cost Americans $20 each.
Continue reading

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Blowout week 48 – OPEC special

The big news this week is OPEC’s decision not to support oil prices by cutting production, so that’s what we lead off with… Continue reading

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The 2014 Oil Price Crash Explained

In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).

This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel. Continue reading

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Blowout week 44

24 more stories below the fold, including drones overflying French nuclear plants, Ukrainian separatists to hold elections, Australia’s new climate policy, Russia claiming rights to Arctic oil & gas, inadequate subsidies killing UK offshore wind, solar in the Sahara, shale in the US, rocket fuel from asteroids, how global warming causes harsh winters and endangers US postal workers and how daylight saving causes cyberloafing. Continue reading

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