Tag Archives: usa

Oil Production Vital Statistics November 2016

In October, global total liquids production hit a new record high of 97.84 Mbpd led by OPEC and Russia! This was caused largely by the scramble to boost production ahead of production cuts with a datum on October 2016. The US rig count continues to rise and US production has stopped falling. The rest of the oil production world outside of OPEC, N America and Russia continues to suffer under the weight of low oil price. Continue reading

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Primary Energy in The European Union and USA Compared

The EU has a larger population and smaller land area than the USA resulting in a population density 3.6 times that of the USA. European citizens therefore have less land available to service the energy needs of its citizens. This combined with different approaches to energy policy has led to the EU now importing 55% of it energy needs while the USA imports only 10%. The USA is well on its way to energy independence. This could have foreign policy and defence implications where the UK and USA has divergent priorities to Europe. Continue reading

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USA Energy Independence Day

It has been 3 years since I last looked at US energy statistics and a recent conversation has prompted me to revisit the topic. Is the USA close to energy independence? The answer is surprisingly yes! In 2007 the USA imported 708 Mtoe (million tonnes oil equivalent) of energy, mainly crude oil. In 2015, that had fallen to 234 Mtoe. The rate of decline is 59.25 Mtoe per annum and if the trend continues the USA will be energy independent in 4 years. It is to be anticipated that the oil price crash will impact oil production in 2016 and 2017 but I wouldn’t bet against the US becoming energy independent in the early years of the next decade. Continue reading

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Solar PV capacity factors in the US – the EIA data

A post I wrote a little over two years ago concluded that solar PV capacity factors in the US ranged between 13% and 19% with an average of around 16%. Recently, however, the US Energy Information Agency published a table showing an average capacity factor of around 28% for utility-sized PV plants in the US in 2015. This post looks into the reasons for this large difference and also addresses the question of whether the EIA estimates can be used to predict future US solar PV output. Continue reading

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Blowout Week 140

This week’s Blowout focuses on the “formal commitment” of Presidents Xi of China and Obama of the U.S. to the Paris Climate Accord. Xi may be in a position to commit China but it’s questionable whether Obama has the ability to commit the U.S. without congressional approval. The last time the U.S. signed a major climate accord (Kyoto in 1997) it was promptly and unanimously repudiated by the U.S. Senate: Continue reading

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Net metering and the death of US rooftop solar

“Net metering” allows anyone with a solar installation to sell surplus solar power to the grid when the sun is shining and to purchase power back from the grid when it isn’t. Net metering has been described as the lifeblood of solar in America, and it’s probably true to state that without it there would be few, if any domestic rooftop solar installations anywhere in the country. However, the program is now coming under attack, with Hawaii and Nevada recently rolling back net metering benefits and with a number of other states also considering changes. What happens if enough states impose similar rollbacks, or maybe do away with net metering altogether? This post reviews this question and concludes that domestic solar in the US will slowly wither and die. Continue reading

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The myth of US self-sufficiency in crude oil

Contrary to general belief, and mis-information by the media the US is far away from being “energy independent” in terms of crude oil imports. Maybe some may find the above analysis statistical hair-splitting but the narrative of US energy independence has shaped public opinion to such an extent that prudence has given way to complacency. There is a danger that wrong geo-strategic views are formed, especially in the context of evolving and worsening conflicts in the Middle East. Continue reading

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OPEC Can’t Win

Cheap oil is a major benefit to the US economy. Cheap oil reduces the cost of US oil imports and is good for the trade balance. The lost value of indigenous oil production in the US is of little consequence to its gigantic economy.

In contrast, oil production is the major part of OPEC GDP, especially the Gulf states that have rather undiversified economies. The drop to $50 is a disaster for them. With WTI flirting with near term lows (on $40.73) , the time of reckoning is nigh for the oil price. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics September 2015

With momentous events unfolding on the World stage, the oil market continues to evolve at a glacial pace. Global total liquids production was 96.29 Mbpd in August, down 630,000 bpd from the June peak. But with over-supply running at over 3 Mbpd during the second quarter, there is still a long way to go to rebalance the system. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics June 2015

World total liquids production up 460,000 bpd to 95.7 mbpd
OPEC production up 160,000 bpd to 31.21 mbpd (C+C)
N America production down 250,000 bpd to 19.55 mbpd
Russia and FSU down 10,000 bpd to 14.05 mbpd
Europe down 20,000 bpd to 3.45 mbpd (compared with April 2014)
Asia down 149,000 bpd to 7.86 mbpd Continue reading

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Global Production Up One Million bpd in March

Global oil production rose sharply in March by 1 Mbpd and we have a new peak in global total liquids production of 95.24Mbpd. But with the oil price currently resilient, it seems likely that surge in production may have reversed.
The plunge in US oil rig count has resumed. Oil plus gas rig count stood at 905 on May 1, just above the low point reached in the post financial crash period.
I anticipate that the price bottom may be in but that price will bounce sideways along bottom for several months until we see significant falls in OECD production. There is as yet little sign of a significant drop in US production.
The current action appears to be demand driven, the low price raising demand more than it is suppressing supplies. Continue reading

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Rig Count Update March / April 2015

The global rig count statistics published by Baker Hughes provide a crucial industry activity indicator and some of the most up to date industry statistics available. This is a short report updating international statistics to March 2015 and US statistics to 10 April 2015. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics: April 2015

Global oil production is declining slowly but remains just above its long-term trend. Just over 94.04 Mbpd was produced in February.

The recovery in the oil price in February reversed in March and WTI has tested its January lows. Spreading conflict in the Middle East adds further complexity to the price dynamic.

The plunge in US oil rig count has slowed significantly although still falling slowly. This may signal a new phase of the oil price war that is discussed at the end of this post. Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics – February 2015

The main oil production changes from November to December are:

World total liquids up 150,000 bpd
OPEC up 80,000 bpd
N America up 80,000 bpd
Russia and FSU up 180,000 bpd
Europe down 70,000 bpd (compared with December 2013)
Asia down 60,000 bpd Continue reading

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Oil Production Vital Statistics – January 2015

This is the first in a monthly series of posts chronicling the action in the global oil market in 11 key charts.

The oil price crash of 2014 / 15 is following the same pace of the 2008 crash. The 2008 crash was demand driven and began 2 months ahead of the broader market crash.

The US oil rig count peaked in October 2014, is down 127 rigs from peak and is falling fast.

Production in OPEC, Russia and FSU, China and SE Asia and in the North Sea are all stable to falling slowly. The bogey in the pack is the USA where a production rise of 4 Mbpd in 4 years has upset the global supply dynamic.

It is unreasonable for the OECD IEA to expect Saudi Arabia to cut production of cheap oil in order to create market capacity for expensive US oil.

There are likely both over supply and weak demand factors at play, weighted towards the latter. Continue reading

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Blowout week 45

By Roger Andrews The US is the world’s largest economy, and what happens in the US has a significant impact on what happens in the rest of the world. So this week we lead off with the US mid-term elections … Continue reading

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Drowning in oil again

For 4 years now the oil price (Brent) has been range bound between $90 and $130 per barrel (Figure 2). This is where it settled after the convulsions of the $148 per barrel peak in 2008 followed by the financial crash. Recently it has dipped below the $90 mark and looks set to break even lower. Continue reading

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The Arguments for and Against Shale Oil and Gas Developments

The energy debate is full of controversy. Whether it is about the pros and cons of renewable energy, nuclear power or fossil fuels (FF) there are a range of arguments made on either side. If it was clear cut which arguments were best, there would be no controversy to discuss. And so it is the case with shale developments, some strongly in favour, some violently opposed. How are we going to solve our energy crisis? Continue reading

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The efficiency of wind power

The “global” wind power load factor is estimated to be 22.7% for 2012. This is based on an analysis of installed wind capacity and electricity production data for 17 countries published by BP [1]. This estimate is subject to the veracity of the data and methodology applied. The average load factor for the last 9 years is estimated to be 22.5±0.4% (1SD). Continue reading

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USA gas independence – looking for export markets

There are multiple benefits for the USA from exporting shale gas, among them the creation of employment, the reduction of the US energy import trade deficit, securing the mid term future of the shale industry by driving gas prices up and undermining the gas dependency of Europe on Russia. Continue reading

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