Fri 2 March: National Grid’s first “gas deficit warning” for eight years has been withdrawn after supplies increased.
Thurs 1 March: National Grid has warned it may not have enough gas to meet UK demand on Thursday and has asked suppliers to provide more.
European energy security is a subject I return to time and again normally prompted by some kind of event. This time it is severe cold weather and snow that has spread from Siberia over the whole of North and Western Europe, rather late in the season, at a time when gas storage is depleted.
There are some compounding factors like the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands is substantially reduced and the UKs biggest gas storage facility – Rough – has been closed. Will the lights stay on? Probably yes, but only because governments may ask large industrial consumers to scale back or shut down their operations. At a time when social services are being cut to the bone, is this really the time for government energy policies to be eroding national GDP?
The Beast from the East
This cold weather pattern has been christened the beast from the East by the British press. So what is it? Essentially atmospheric circulation has gone into reverse. Instead of receiving normally mild south westerlies, we are getting a very cold easterly air stream as Figure 1 shows. As I have said repeatedly on this blog, the likely reason for this anomalous behaviour is changes to solar spectrum linked to low magnetic activity and circulation within the solar plasma. We observe all this complexity as changes in sunspot number and length of the sunspot cycle.
Figure 1 Screen capture ~ 18:00 hours from Windy.com (HT Gunther) Tuesday 27 February. All the arrows over Europe are pointing West. London -3˚C, Paris -3˚C, Berlin -7˚C, Warsaw -11˚C and Oslo -11˚C. Energy for heating will be in high demand.
UK Grid
This post may seem rather disjointed and that’s because it is. I simply want to pull together a number of quite random observations starting with the UK grid that I have been monitoring in recent days. Next week maybe we will take a look at data for the whole of this week. Leo has noted in comments that Gridwatch has had record hits these past few days.
Figure 2 Screen capture from Gridwatch accessed ~ 18:00 on Tuesday 22 February.
Some key observations starting with solar (difficult to read here, click the chart for a large version) which is on zero – the Sun has set. But it has made little difference today since most of the UKs >12 GW of solar panels are covered in snow. What sort of idea is it to have energy security linked to devices that specifically do not work when you need them most?
Figure 3 Snow covered solar panels. I wouldn’t like to be standing on a ladder below this lot.
Coal is red lined at 11.2 GW and has been all day. This is somewhat surprising since according to my last survey of the assets the UK only has 10.6 GW of coal capacity. I have just noticed an anomaly in my data and that is Eggborough that announced closure in February is already closed according to my table. That can explain why we are producing over-capacity.
Figure 4 The demise of UK coal fired electricity generation based on UK government figures.
Note that as recently as 2015 we had 20 GW of coal. With that muscle in the tank today’s weather would be a walk in the park. Instead UN, EU and UK energy policies have placed the population and economy at risk.
But it gets worse than that. The UK government has announced that most remaining coal plants will close by 2022 and all will be closed by 2025. I hope they can explain how we would ride through the current cold spell with another 11 GW of dispatchable capacity gone.
UK citizens should note that UK coal fired power stations stand idle for most of the time and get paid by us for doing so. So-called capacity reserve.
Wind is putting out ~ 5GW (as I write) compared to installed capacity of 18.4GW. Gunther says:
At least it will not be wind power that let’s you down.
That is until the wind drops.
One final note. The UK has always maintained low gas storage. With offshore reserves that guaranteed most of our supplies for decades there was little need for storage. With the decline of the N Sea, the UK has opted to replace indigenous reserves with LNG imports which are far less secure than home-grown supplies.
European Energy Security
Enough on the UK. Let’s move on to Europe. All charts from Global Energy Graphed compiled by Neil Mearns who now works for a leading energy consultancy in Norwich.
Let me begin with a look at gas production in The Netherlands.
Figure 5 For many years the Dutch Parliament has pegged production from Groningen to preserve resources for the future. In recent years production has been cut when faced with land subsidence and earthquakes causing structural damage. A recurring theme on this blog is “no such thing as a free lunch in the world of energy”.
Gas production in The Netherlands is dominated by the giant Groningen gas field. The field is huge and production of gas has caused the land above it to subside and lately this has caused earthquakes and structural damage to property. Not great for a country where some of the land lies below sea level.
The latest reports are that the Dutch will cut production from Groningen to 21.6 BCM per annum. Eyeball that on the chart above to appreciate the scale of the problem. The Netherlands will have gone from exporting ~ 25 BCM per annum to the rest of Europe to a net importer of gas in the space of ~ 5 years. Where that gas will be replaced from is a moot question.
Figure 6 UK gas production, consumption and balance.
A similar thing happened with the UK about 15 years ago where natural production decline transformed a temporary net-exporter situation to one of serial importer.
Figure 7 Norwegian gas production is now by far the largest source of indigenous gas supply in Europe. It may well have peaked, see Figure 8.
Norway is very important to Europe as a major gas exporter. Compare with the UK (Figure 6) you will see that Norway’s peak production is similar to the UK’s, the big difference being that Norway consumes hardly any gas, making it a big exporter, while the UK consumed most of what it produced. Norway’s gas production will peak one year soon and then enter relentless decline placing Europe more in the hands of the financially and politically volatile international gas market.
Figure 8 Norwegian gas production forecast from Rune Likvern. The red and green lines show forecasts from the NPD.
Figure 8 shows a forecast for Norwegian gas production produced by the highly respected Rune Likvern. Note that the red and green lines are forecasts from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD). All see a decline in Norwegian gas in the years ahead. Europe is going to become increasingly dependent upon imports from Russia, Algeria, Qatar, Nigeria and perhaps the USA.
Time to stand back and take a BIG PICTURE look at European gas supply and demand.
Figure 9 European gas production peaked in 2005. It has now entered a period of likely irreversible decline.
Figure 10 European gas demand peaked in 2008-2010 and then succumbed to the burden of the finance crash. Since 2014, gas demand has been growing again, a good sign for the populace and bad sign for the policy makers.
Figure 11 Combining figures 9 and 10 produces this picture of European gas imports. The decline in imports since 2010 is because of recession. The subsequent reversal since 2014 is hopefully on the back of recovery in the European economies.
Many years ago, I wrote a post called Energy Decline in A Freezing Climate that at the time was considered inappropriate for The Oil Drum audience. The weather here in Aberdeen is controlled by the pattern of atmospheric circulation. High pressure centred on the North Sea in Summer brings sunny, hot weather. Atlantic storms and an Atlantic storm track can bring a lot of rain and occasional flooding. The East wind in winter can bring Siberian cold to Europe. Whatever controls the configuration of these dominant systems controls climate. We know from history and isotope geochemistry that low solar magnetic activity is associated with extreme cold winters in Europe. If history repeats, we could easily be in for deteriorating winter conditions in the decades ahead. European politicians would do well to put in place energy policies fit for the purpose of protecting Europe’s citizens.
Hi Euan
Here we are 1200 miles South of Aberdeen at 350m and we have snow.
Having been here for a while we have seen this twice in the last ~20 years. This year 2018 we have seen on two separate occasions already.
Is this a foretaste of a cooling world ?
And here, 5400 miles southwest of Aberdeen at elevation 1,500m we have daytime temps in the eighties and no snow at all. 🙂
Is that a foretaste of a warming world? 🙂
And here, exactly 400 miles northeast of Aberdeen at elevation 730m the temperature Is -19 C and with a stiff breeze along. The temp isn’t unusual, only the stiff breeze that accompanies it.
Roger,
New England Will Have Brownouts and Higher Electricity Prices:
During the bitter cold stretch that started right after Christmas and continued into 2018, ISO-NE had a tough time keeping the electricity flowing to homes and businesses throughout New England.
Facing a shortage of natural gas because of a dearth of pipeline capacity, they relied on old oil and coal plants to provide enough electricity.
With oil supplies rapidly running low, ISO-NE, responsible for ensuring the region’s electricity supply, said keeping the whole system up and running proved “extremely challenging” as operators “worked around the clock to keep the power flowing and the grid stable.”
http://www.sunjournal.com/maine-may-face-brownouts-higher-electric-prices/
Hi Ed, walking my dog this afternoon was bordering on life threatening. Poor old Angus (15 and 1/4 West Highland White) got stuck in a drift.
West Highland White / snow drift:
http://i.imgur.com/mRQBs.jpg
Here, on the same latitude as Aberdeen, we had -25C and a foot of snow. And both our breeders on refueling.
Celebrating the first day of spring. Ad: “Those who survive 3 months of winter get another one for free.”
“Coal is red lined at 11.2 GW and has been all day……” and all of the night, too!
https://s17.postimg.org/586hu99tr/Fuel_Mix_and_Carbon_Intensity_Last_24_Hours_electricity_info.jpg
Coal has been producing 23% recently, while gas has shrunk from usual 50% to mid 20s. Someone must have decided to divert gas to maintain reserves for heating. At least Thermalite and Celcon will have some more PFA to make insulating block.
My Robin was looking through the window this morning and stayed a foot away while I gave him his bit of my boiled egg.
http://www.mygridgb.co.uk/last-7-days/
Gas goes down to mid 20s during days when wind peaks up. Coal has been constantly high. Our energy minister was saying that her cap may not work because wholesale oil prices may increase. Nice to know we are in competent hands.
https://order-order.com/2018/02/27/early-repairs-500-uk-wind-turbines-will-cost-millions/
Perhaps the 20 year life of offshore turbines is in question.
Of course they will last 20 years.
A few Blade replacements plus a couple of gearboxes and then the main turbine.
No problem at all.
Can we have an Energy Minister like this chap please?
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/V-Ontarios-nuclear-advantage-28021801.html
Please take him. In shutting down coal he raised my rates and my bill 100%. By introducing wind and solar at rates 6 to 12 times the previous, we now have 40 some gas plants idling to provide grid stability. Any excess solar and wind production, we pay US states to take off our hands. As for bettering our air quality this was the result of the US converting mid-west plants to fracked gas. We are kicking him and his like out of office on 7 Jun 18.
That sounded so kind, but yet somehow wrong
And the God sent magical Interconnect with our French friends has been running at a lower output and going negative during our Peak! Illustrating like Solar and Wind it will NOT be there when WE need it!
Is Coal going full pelt (Aberporth in Barry has been lit – restricted to Emergency operations apparently) so to lower Gas demand on the network – with everyones heating being on?
There’s an iceberg ahead…. UK Titanic!!!
https://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/2885398/transparency-drive/great-britain/utilization/block-actual-production/
All 3 boilers going at Aber!
Eggborough seemingly short of coal:
http://www.eggboroughpower.co.uk/remit-data.aspx
A 2GW plant producing 200MW.
If solar variation would be the explanation, then why there is warmer than ever in the North Pole? Why it is so hard for you to accept that the climate change is one of the negative feedback loops of overpopulation and us using the finite resources. I mean seriously already the ancients as well the the laters migrants to USA were changing the local climates often on purpose, like in my home country where by draining the swamps the microclimates were turned less cold spell prone.
Kanghi, on this blog when you claim warmer than ever at the North Pole you need to produce evidence to back the claim up. Here is my evidence for little evidence for Arctic warming.
http://euanmearns.com/record-arctic-warmth-in-1937/
You should try and read the whole post and understand it. And also appreciate the amount of work that went into it. The scare stories circulating at present are from people who patrol data looking for evidence that supports their theory while ignoring all evidence that does not. This is not science and is to be ignored. Atmospheric circulation has undergone a re-alignment. Probably temporary. Its like a Rubik’s cube. You can’t change something one place without changing lots in other places too.
Your graph does show a clear rising trend.
That is not, I think, a reason to rush around in a panic like headless chickens, or to waste untold sums on wind and solar. But a steady replacement of coal, and then gas, by nuclear would be reasonable.
Don, yes about 0.8C over 130 years.
But note the sharp rise in temperature between 1917 and 1937, approximately 2.5C in 20 years, but of course that was just weather.
Arctic warming during the NH winter is a signal of enhanced meridional heat transport from the tropics to the poles. Nearly all that heat will leave the planet as IR radiation. The high increase in temperature +6 °C is due to the low heat capacity (enthalpy) of very cold, very dry Arctic air and has essentially no consequences during the very cold Arctic winter. Come April, Arctic temperatures will become for the third year in a row below average, and global temperature anomaly will decrease as this highly biased seasonal effect disappears.
Some pics if you want to understand what is going on instead of being brainwashed by climate alarmism:
Yearly effect of polar temperatures on the global anomaly:
https://oz4caster.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/d6-gfs-grta-daily-2013-2018-03-02.gif
2017 Arctic temperatures showing warmer winter and cooler summer.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png
Same for 2016
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png
There is nothing to worry about the poles regarding climate. We still have to worry about human pollution.
Regarding electricity security – if there is such a shortage of capacity, then why was the capacity market buying capacity recently for a ridiculously low £8/KW/year?
In theory, as the coal is phased out, the capacity market will be buying more capacity from gas turbines, So far these haven’t be built, but there is no reason why they won’t be – but for that to happen, the capacity market will probably need to rise to £40-60/KW/year.
Perhaps the longer term worry is on gas supplies. Right now, Russia is pumping large amounts of gas to Europe. The EU has largely completed the internal gas market, which makes it much harder for Gazprom to engage in it’s divide and rule strategy, and for the time being, they (and their Government) are behaving and doing what they ought to do: Selling lots of gas. Hopefully this situation with Gazprom will continue.
Moving forward, we don’t yet know the impact of leaving the EU on gas security. Out of the Single Market, if there is a shortage of gas on the continent, then they will shut the pipelines to the UK. Renege on supply contracts or face domestic gas rationing: No contest. The UK’s substantial LNG import facilities are useful asset, but it takes several weeks to arrange a LNG shipment from Qatar. Obviously fracking would help the UK and European gas situation if it can be done cleanly.
Incidentally – we had -13C and no snow in the south of Germany, and our 5.4KW array reached over 5KW and close to 28KWh for the day. Normally, we have to wait to April for that kind of delivery; and then in hot July the maximum drops to below 4.8KW (though the longer day more than makes up for it).
With regard to the picture above – I often use a broom to brush the snow off the lowest panels. The electricity they make is then lost in internal resistance in the upper panels, which melts the lowest layer of snow, which then slides down. The panels in the picture above will soon be clear. If however they are totally covered, then they will stay totally covered for a long time if the panels are at less than about 45 degrees.
I take it you don’t have rain gutters. Or worry about walking under the edge of the roof.
Just mention metal roofs have a great ability to destroy rain gutters (to keep water away from the foundation) on the edge of the roof. Enough that they make special pieces to prevent the mini avalanche.
Yes, I have gutters. They get filled up with the snow sliding off the panels. The panels start about 3m above ground level so not too worried about being hit by a bit of snow.
I do suspect however that people attempting to clear snow from high level solar panels is a source of accident, which is one of the reasons why solar PV is more dangerous than wind, which is more dangerous than nuclear energy.
Look at that picture. I guess you have not had that amount of snow build up on your panels. A foot or so. Also your panels may not be like the picture where the they go up to the edge of the roof.
Getting hit by a foot+ of snow is not a bit. Metal roofs in Montana have to have “Snow Guards” otherwise the gutter is on the ground when the part sticking to the metal melts. Snow hits gutter, gutter is on the ground.
I do agree about the danger of removing the snow manually.
Of course in Western New York the snow load gets removed to keep roof from collapsing.
T2M
I think you over-exaggerate our dependence on the EU for gas.
http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/3226/999/original.jpg
See also
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends
Norway is outside the EU, and it not going to give up the UK market in a hurry with its dedicated pipelines. In practice, we spend time being an offshore LNG terminal for the continent. We now have more competition in LNG supply with Yamal and the US allowing diversification away from Qatar. Nevertheless, I would like to see any shale potential developed, as Norway is not a forever solution.
http://watt-logic.com/2018/02/14/t-4-capacity-auction/
is a good read on the economics of power generation and capacity auctions
“One final note. The UK has always maintained low gas storage.”?
We had the Rough storage facility, with a capacity of 3.1 bcm (34,100 GWh)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/571a2323e5274a201400000f/Rough_gas_storage_undertakings_review_final_report.pdf
That’s now closed, leaving us a mere 1.44 bcm (15, 840 GWh) storage & daily draw-off capability of 120.8 mcm
What becomes crucial is deliverability, post Rough
https://www.timera-energy.com/content/uploads/2017/04/UK-deliverability.png
Real-time gas network info:
http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingView/Index
Eat your heart-out, our electricity industry, with its 33GWh of storage.
Joe, many thanks for the links. I think you will find that even including Rough, UK gas storage was tiny compared to Germany.
Hi Euan – yes and there’s an irony.
24 bcm (264,000 GWh) of storage & 642 mcm/day (7,062 GWh/day) deliverability.
http://www.cedigaz.org/documents/2017/Overview%20of%20underground%20gas%20storage%20in%20the%20world%202017%20v1.pdf
Yet not that much of its electricity is generated via that cleanest of its FF sources:
https://www.energy-charts.de/energy.htm?source=all-sources&period=monthly&year=2018&month=2
Why on earth would one close down such critical storage capacity, when UK becomes more and more relying on natural gas imports and is going to cut itself loose from the continent.
Some stuff in this blog, I surely regard as overblown. But in this case, I am really puzzled.
A simple internet search will show you why. It had come to the end of its design life.
https://www.ft.com/content/68fa2c3e-55ad-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2
Not quite as bleak as you paint, because I think you have excluded the LNG terminals. Still, we’ve moved from 61TWh of capacity down to 26TWh with the loss of Rough.
Clearly we will depend on a more frequent and reliable LNG shipping schedule in future:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b91586952ab8f055db2202cdad6c0ffa8019bf31df5cfdd0713f81ec93527a4.png
Canada could ship you some of ours, but… we never built the pipelines to the ports…
Euan,
It would be instructive to know the roles payed of wind and solar in Germany, Denmark and the UK during the “Beast from the East” period.
The UK press calling it “Beast from the East” is wrongfully accusing Russia by implication, whereas, in fact, it is UK energy policy idiots making nutty decisions that should be blamed and booted.
Hi Willem
Try ….
http://energodock.com/denmark/country-overview
….. but it does only one country at a time.
“It would be instructive to know the roles payed of wind and solar in Germany …”
The German data is here:
https://www.energy-charts.de/power_de.htm
As Alex mentions above, there was plenty of sunshine at middays.
Please define plenty.
If I am remembering correctly there is 40 GW of PV in Germany. A peak of ~18 GW is less than half that. Not even worth figuring out the energy total, IMO.
Seems like an incredibly poor return.
T2M
Doubtless, you are correct. However, 10GW around midday is not to be sniffed at. 🙂
They even managed to export power 10GW for a short while two days ago to their neighbours – and mess up their systems
Others have mentioned the Beast and Russia. I simply don’t make that equation. The Beast is a simply a metaphor for the weather coming from the East.
“Others have mentioned the Beast and Russia. I simply don’t make that equation”
It is necessary to put it in context. One has to be pretty unobservant to fail to notice that there is a lot of commonality across all media in the way they present Russia and the East. This is clearly synchronized by those pushing the pedals on the organ. It is coordinated and is done for a purpose.
“Russia doping scandal”
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/russia-doping-scandal
“Russia ‘on wrong side of history’ over Syria chemical weapons – US”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/28/russia-on-wrong-side-of-history-over-syria-chemical-weapons-us
“China’s military is turning its aggressive South China Sea tactics on Japan”
http://uk.businessinsider.com/russia-china-backing-japan-in-a-corner-2018-1?r=US&IR=T
It is incessant and it is quite alarming. No opportunity is lost to demonize Russia. It is designed to make receptive people in the UK to perceive Russia and China, to a lesser extent, as threats.
The reality is that both Russia and China want to trade and raise the standard of living of their own peoples. Russia has almost unlimited land and resources and China has almost unlimited human resources.
Russia has nothing to gain by occupying bankrupt countries such as Ukraine or the Baltic States. China has much to lose by stopping blocking the South China Sea.
Alfred,
You echo my views.
However, regarding the US, China is a much bigger future threat than Russia.
It has more high speed rail than the rest of the world
It produces more solar panels than the rest of the world
Highest car production in the world
Is building nuclear plants at LOW cost and QUICKLY
Will soon have a larger GDP than the US
Its future MILITARY capability will checkmate the US, and Russia is on the side of China. There is no way the US can match that.
The US has huge budget deficits and huge trade deficits.
Foreigners owned 8.3 TRILLION more in the US, than the US owned abroad at end 2016; likely more at end 2017.
Here are some trade details.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-eu-and-international-trade
re: China
It seems that Thierry Meyssan has another scoop on that one:
“Russian Army in Damascus”
http://www.voltairenet.org/article199874.html
It seems that London has just been given its instructions
“No opportunity is lost to demonize Russia”
Russia is quite capable of demonising itself – getting up and boasting of new weapons that can deliver nuclear warheads to Florida.
“Russia has nothing to gain by occupying bankrupt countries such as Ukraine or the Baltic States. ”
Baltic States aren’t bankrupt. But Russia certainly doesn’t want to occupy Ukraine. Far better to keep a frozen in place.
Putin’s objective is to give Russians the impressions that they are surrounded and under threat, and only he can guarantee their security.
* “frozen conflict”
Have you not seen Putin’s new weapons? Giant fans in the Urals to blow the cold air to Europe, so we are hooked onto his gas.
Willem,
today German net electricity production was 46% covered by renewables. (data as of 10 p. m.)
Was that for the entire 24 hours?
How much was exported during that 24 h period?
Most recent (July 2017) EuroStat ‘Natural gas consumption statistics’:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Natural_gas_consumption_statistics#Consumption_trends
The Syrian war since 2011 has been about gas delivery to Europe. Occident-backed Saudi Arabia and Qatar solution requires the removal or control loss over part of Syria of Assad regime, so the gas pipeline can go from Jordan to the Mediterranean. The Russian-backed Iranian solution has the support of Assad regime to deliver gas from Iran to Europe. Taking advantage of the 2011 Arab revolution a group of countries decided to support an attempt to overthrow Assad, arming and financing his opponents. This is what turned a revolt that could have been put down with a minimum of bloodshed into a terribly bloody conflict that has inundated nearby countries and Europe with refugees.
In addition to Oil wars, we now have also Gas wars. Sadly we are in the bad guys side this time. The side that didn’t think twice about causing thousands of innocent victims, because they think they can put the blame on others with the complicity of the media. Shame on Europe and its twisted energy policies.
Just to be fair, the U.S. fracking revolution has resulted in massive supply, and minimal environmental damage. Such a revolution is quite doable in Europe, but France, Germany and Scotland have all banned fracking. In Poland major oil companies have all marched back empty handed. In Denmark too. In Romania, Hillary Clinton’s attempted to kickstart a shale gas market for US companies ended in mass protests and Chevron’s departure.
The U.S. has a terrific regulatory systems for fracking. In Europe mineral rights are not privately owned, but surface rights are. Meaning there is zero incentive for surface right owners to allow mineral exploration under their land. Europe has poor field development infrastructure.
It is all possible – Europe has the right formations to supply itself with plenty of gas. But the attitudes, laws, and rights profiles will have to change.
And it is all mind-numbingly stupid – getting rid of coal would chase a substantial fraction of carbon dioxide emissions out the European market, and gas can do that. But the greens will prevent it, meaning the gas must be imported and stored.
I note today we have already seen power balancing prices at over 210£/MWh in the UK while we supply the French via the interconnector, and gas has also gone into orbit with System Sell price at over 130p/therm.
http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingViewGraph/ViewReport?prevailingViewGraph=ActualPriceGraph&gasDate=2018-02-28
The bidding competition for power supply doesn’t seem to have extended into Germany, while it has clearly affected France, the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium among the EEX day ahead spot markets:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/796873c22790c57f1d2e272cebc6cfd5f8aabe6ca18c8ab4971170742eabe4ad.png
French nuclear is clearly running some way down at the moment, and that is the root cause of the shortage.
Note to Leo Smith: Have you checked up on French imports from Germany? Your French gridwatch is showing much higher levels than ENTSO-E
Physical flows between Germany and France seem to be quite small in recent days: http://clients.rte-france.com/lang/an/visiteurs/vie/flux_physiques_2.jsp
Does not look like a real shortage on the French side.
I go by what RTE says. It amalgamates Belgian and German imports into one
Back up prices in the UK are now at £ 950 per KW hour according to Plutus PowerGen
Actually they made a mistake, it was MW not KW
Re the Beast: ‘So what is it?’
In a usual northern-hemisphere winter, several minor warming events occur, with a major event occurring roughly every two years. One reason for major stratospheric warmings to occur in the Northern hemisphere is because orography and land-sea temperature contrasts are responsible for the generation of long (wavenumber 1 or 2) Rossby waves in the troposphere. These waves travel upward to the stratosphere and are dissipated there, decelerating the winds and warming the Arctic. This is the reason that major warmings are only observed in the northern-hemisphere, with one exception.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming#Dynamics
That’s one possibility.
Sudden stratospheric warming events frequency and timing is linked by some authors to solar activity. Their impact is to weaken and disorganize the polar vortex allowing cold Arctic air masses to move southward. Another main effect is to promote climate alarmists becoming shitless about winter Arctic warming.
I agree with Euan that current low solar activity might be a factor behind colder than average winters with more snow than usual.
Thanks for the link to windy.com. It’s instructive to switch to a temperature graphic, and then speculate as to why Rejkjavik is warmer than London, noticing the expanse of ocean and the location of the temperature contours.
Here in Edinburgh it’s truly wintry, with beautiful dry snow blowing around and drifting. Empty streets and no traffic, fab.
Whilst there have been no domestic supply problems, I’d be a bit less anxious about the coming week if the EU’s large combustion plant directive and our UK energy ‘market’ hadn’t brought about the demise of Longannet. The extra 2 GW would be quite welcome right now.
Fun fact: according to the Clive Best webpage wind power in UK is now the biggest producer with 15 GW.
Is that your cognitive blinkers preventing you seeing that gas still trumps wind? Try gridwatch: http://gridwatch.co.uk/
Gridwatch does not show unmetered wind…..
“…. that shows only as a drop in demand“
Yes, but the unmetered onshore wind is dwarfed now by the big offshore farms.
Its almost not worth considering
Leo,
according to this source the unmetered contribution is about 4 GW (when running with full capacity): http://euanmearns.com/untangling-uk-wind-power-production/
So, the scaling factor in the program by Clive Best might be outdated, but is not totally out of this world as UK (yet).
…the unmetered onshore wind is dwarfed now by the big offshore farms.
There’s currently over 6600MW of unmetered onshore wind capacity, and 6361MW of commissioned offshore.
MW for MW the offshore will produce more output than onshore, but the difference is far from ‘dwarfing’.
Be careful. There is metered onshore as well as offshore.
I am willing to accept there is >6GW onshore embedded, but there is more metered than 6GW
And the overwhelming majority unmetered farms are poorly sited and often broken – capacity factor seldom exceeds 20%
Try the REAL gridwatch
http://gridwatch.ORG.uk
Is that a new URL Leo?
Sort of. A ‘fan’ registered it and pointed it at the new site, and because the new site is the default for that IP address it worked.
So I made it official so it works PROPERLY . I dont actually control it, though I might take it up.
Leo, your download feature is a great resource, thank you! Is there any chance you could add the balancing market price to the data stream?
If you contact me directly via webmaster @ templar.co.uk we can work something out for sure
Try: http://electricityinfo.org/real-time-british-electricity-supply/
As I type this, current outputs are Gas (CCGT+OCGT) 13,795MW / Coal 11,203MW / Wind 10,515MW
is that the FOURTH me-too gridwatch that doesnt have archive data?
I think the embedded wind output quoted there has dropped a digit – it’s more like 3000MW currently, which still seems low from a total embedded capacity of over 6600MW when the metered is running at near 90% output.
So what?
It is Windy at the moment, at least it is saving some Gas, but at what cost?
And at what damage to the Turbine blades?
Spot gas is now over 200p/therm. National Grid are now forbidding gas exports:
Balancing power soared to 990£/MWh early this afternoon (period 27). The grid has spent much of the day operating at more than 2GW undersupply (presumably made good by STOR).
Today being the first of March is the first day that triad risk no longer applies, so there is no triad incentive to cut demand during the peak rush hour half hour. Perhaps we will see National Grid asking OFGEM to extend the triad season after this experience. It is notable that balancing prices and undersupply margin have fallen back presumably as more behind the meter generation got tempted to start up.
There is little doubting that without the fortunate amount of wind the combined crunch on gas and electricity would have proved impossible to meet. Looking at the forward forecast for wind, output is expect to drop to around 5.6 GW on 3rd March. There are as yet no LNG tankers expected in Grain or Milford Haven, though I would not be surprised to see the Christophe de Margerie divert from its present voyage to Montoir: it is presently crossing the North Sea southbound.
At 5am this morning, wind is nearly maxed out and they’ve shut off the gas to accommodate it .Running the gas turbines on 10% load must result in higher emissions. Although we would have to see what gas is running. I presume the faster acting ones have been shut down completely. And maybe some demand side eg diesel generation is also backing up that wind which also negates some of that co2 savings.
Interesting to note that in 2010 there was no wind as the cold weather was accompanied by anticyclonic conditions.
Potential gas supply deficit flagged up by National Grid …
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43229297
… may lead to knock on effects on the electricity side if the called for demand side (gas) response needs to include gas fired power generation.
Greenies are at this very moment busy preparing their press releases:
“Shortage of gas causes nationwide blackouts”
Ironically, because of the blackouts, few of their messages will get distributed.
/sarc
Having studied the UK’s gas supply security for over 20 years and been responsible for it at one point in the past I am mildly concerned at the current supply situation. Losing Rough is a big problem as it was the only long range storage facility we had. Everything else is relatively short duration. Also according to NG’s website there is no stock in short range storage. This would have been the peak shaving LNG used to provide high deliverability but short duration. The problem we are seeing at the moment could get worse as we are nowhere near the highest demand we could see if the weather was uniform across the country and national demand reached what is termed the 1 in 20 peak day. In their Winter Outlook NG quote a maximum supply deliverability including storage of 568 mcmd which far exceeds the 502 forecast 1 in 20 peak day. But the minimum is quoted as being 135 mcmd, assuming no imports through the two interconnectors and very low LNG imports. For NG to raise the Gas Deficit Warning at forecast demand levels of around 400 mcmd as a result of supply problems should be seen as a potential risk to electricity generation only as in the event of a National Gas Supply Emergency the very largest gas demands come off first which will be mainly CCGTs. Lets just hope its windy if and when that day comes.
I must say that on the REAL gridwatch site – that is any of:
gridwatch,templar.co.uk
gridwatch.org.uk
http://www.gridwatch,templar.co.uk
http://www.gridwatch.org.uk
the site is breaking new records for visitors (and donations).
http://gridwatch.org.uk/admin/
… about 4 times the normal quantities with national coverage of the ‘beast from the east’
In a masterpiece of selective reporting (faux news) the BBC reported that at one point in the morning wind coincidentally happened to be the biggest thing on the grid.
Right now coal and gas are of course bigger
http://gridwatch.org.uk/adverts/barchart-advert.png
is a nice little advert paid for by the scientific alliance that is a live snapshot of power production that you can probably stick on your websites
A Transmission System Operator cannot assure zero LOLE – Loss Of Load Expectation, but can identify capacity and energy quantities needed to respect a defined reliability target. UK has a Reliability Standard for the security of supply of 3 hours LOLE, which seems a reasonable economic compromise (energy unserved cost assumed of £17,000/MWh). This is a planning and forecasting criterion. In the day-to-day operation, it belongs to the art of the Dispatching Centre to take exceptional measures, when needed, to reduce that loss of load probability. I believe National Grid is doing a great job to keep the lights on, but they are not responsible for the overall security related with the UK energy and environment policies.
Their capacity forecast, under the Reliability Standard, used for the capacity auctions, is done transparently and considering all the risks factors the system can face (weather, peak demand, traditional generation rate of failure, renewables de-rated capacity, interconnectors and DSR – Demand Side Response, energy and peak load scenarios). They do not consider a “black swam” incident (these are defined as events that have very low probability but high impact) and it is important to remember that some regional blackouts result more from high voltage lines failure than by lack of generation reserve. Capacity of renewables paid by CfD, FIT or other support is taken into account with a de-rating factor upon nameplate capacity, but cannot participate in the capacity auction (for 2018/19 onshore and offshore wind 2.9GW and 1.4GW; for PV there is no information, I believe they consider zero as in Spain). The very low price of last auction may be explained by a large competition with a large participation of distributed generation (it is considered that the cost of a new entry, fixed cost discounted of market revenues, is £49/kW/yr).
UK, as other European countries, has a flat demand as peak load forecast too. Therefore, the growth in renewables does not aim demand growth, but mostly fossil thermal replacement. It is not a surprise concluding that fossil fuel technologies and facilities are loosing energy market share. In fact, intermittent renewables can be seen as energy providers to the system, but not of firm capacity. The capacity auction pays an insurance premium, not a subsidy, to assure the capacity needed, beyond the share of de-rated renewable capacity already paid (and tries to solve the “missing money” problem of traditional generators in the electricity market). Instead of an administrative payment to interruptible load, DSR has the opportunity to receive it through the capacity auction. So, I am not surprised of DSR being called to provide the service for what they are paid for or to compensate a failure in natural gas logistics…
“#BeastFromTheEast: Gazprom Comes to Aid of Freezing EU Members Again – Analyst”
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201803011062130203-gazprom-eu-gas/
If you look at ELEXON web page on the REMIT tab a number of CCGTs have unplanned outages or reduced capacity currently due to gas shortages so without King Coal running flat out we would be in trouble. Be interesting to know if they’ve called upon STOR units.
Uk gas shortages and national grid warnings just hit the main stream media on sky tv news. If anyone has the nouse to link sky news watch again around 19:30 to 19:40.
Inteligent interview with a young energy analyst Dr J Marshall.
Summarised a lot of above discussion very concisely.
Back to the weather, I was commissioning a couple of small gas ships in Tees in March 2013. There was about a month of this cold hard easterly and storms stopped port entry/pilotage at times.
“Beast from the East” is just a catchy rhyming media hype tagline as far as I’m concerned. Sky news article above was followed by a pitch for Russia testing unstoppable nuke weapons, but i’m sure their intent in developing such is innocent. Ahem.
Russia just develops means of carbon-free unlimited-range air travel. Not only innocent, but also very green and forwad-looking.
I just watched the news, and nuclear powered cruise missiles are hardly “innocent” 🙂
They can cause harm only if shot down by an irresponsible party. Please do not shoot down our cruise missiles!
A sky news summary article here:
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-facing-gas-supply-crunch-as-country-gripped-by-big-freeze-11271649
The interview with Marshall had a few more technical discussion points like the problems of electrifying heating, complexities of heat pumps etc… no golden (green) bullets.
Magical thinking just won’t stop until we have a systemic breakdown IMHO
“MIT’s Miracle Energy Breakthrough”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/MITs-Miracle-Energy-Breakthrough.html
Not that much different to a Peltier Device.
Subsequent to Putin’s speech which has put all the world’s floating navies into the dustbin of history, Russia has come out with this one:
“Gazprom began the termination of contracts with Naftogaz”
https://tinyurl.com/y8qu8tnr (Google translation)
https://vz.ru/news/2018/3/2/910804.html (Russian original)
No more Mr Nice Guy The timing is impeccable.
But Europe, in particular the UK, should not use the fracking technology to increase natural gas production. We will frack enough gas for you here in the USA. Then we will liquify it and sell it to Europeans at a substantial markup!