UK Weather Trends since 1998

Last week Paul Homewood published an interesting guest post by meteorologist Neil Catto. The charts that run from November 1998 speak for themselves:

Here are the station localities:

UK “scientists” of all sorts who attribute observed changes to UK environment to climate change may have some explaining to do.

Read the original post on Notalotofpeopleknowthat.

I’ve been travelling since Thursday. Back home to my wife and dogs Tuesday. Posts on oil supply vital statistics and record breaking UK wind production to follow later in the week 😉

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12 Responses to UK Weather Trends since 1998

  1. Joe Public says:

    “UK “scientists” of all sorts who attribute observed changes to UK environment to climate change may have some explaining to do.”

    Not only scientists, but environment analysts who are happy to quote a botanist mentioning the magic phrase:

  2. This is the same findings Dr. John Christy found for the world after reviewing climate data for the years before the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. He has testified to this effect before a congressional committee. He is a leading climatologist at the University of Alabama.

    The POPE needs to understand these same facts. Louis W Powers Author “The World Energy Dilemma”.

  3. edhoskins says:

    Thank you for your great common sense article. Also have a look at the longer term and the history of the Holocene interglacial.

    Our current beneficial, warm Holocene interglacial has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000+ years. The congenial climate of the Holocene spans from mankind’s earliest farming to the scientific and technological advances of the last 100 years.

    Accepting that the Oxygen isotope method of paleo temperature estimation is a good representation and that the method gives a reasonable history of past climate especially for the Northern hemisphere when using Greenland ice cores.

    Looking at a broader picture in Millennial steps, according to the GISP2 Ice Core data the real decline towards the next glacial age started some 3000 years ago, round about 1000BC.
    The GISP2 temperature record shows a distinct ‘Tipping Point’ at 1000BC and temperatures then start their decline at a significantly increased rate.

    Having been roughly flat for the first 7000 years including the Holocene Climate Optimum, the Holocene rate of temperature decline escalates from roughly 0.05°C / millennium 8000BC – 1000BC, to about 0.5 °C/ millennium, 1000BC – 2000AD.

    The GISP2 ice core records from Greenland show:

    1 the last millennium of our benign Holocene 1000AD – 2000AD was the coldest of the whole current Holocene interglacial.

    2 each of the notable high points in Holocene temperatures, (Holocene: Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), has been progressively colder than the previous high point.

    3 for its first 7-8000 years the early Holocene, encompassing its high point “climate optimum” had a pretty flat temperatures on average a drop of only ~0.05 °C per millennium.

    4 but the recent Holocene for the last 3000 years since 1000BC has seen a temperature diminution at at least 10 times that earlier rate.

    5 our happy Holocene interglacial is about 10-11000 years old and judging by earlier Interglacials the epoch is probably drawing to its close, in this century the next century or this millennium.

    6 so any minor warming after at the end of the 20th century to the Modern high point eventually will be seen as noise in the system in the longer term progress of continuing cooling over the past 3000+ years.

    7 other published Greenland Ice Core records (NGRIP1, GRIP) corroborate this finding. They also exhibit the same pattern of a prolonged relatively stable early Holocene period followed by a subsequent much more rapid decline in the more recent past.

    Global warming protagonists should accept that the Holocene is in long term decline and that any action taken by man-kind is unlikely to make any difference whatsoever.

    And were the actions by Man-kind able to avert warming would be simply reinforcing the catastrophic and eventually disastrous cooling that is bound to return in due course.


  4. Leo Smith says:

    The reality is of course that the world is really far far hotter than it used to be, and scarier and with worse weather, but the Koch brothers have developed mind control and implanted false memory in the skeptics and false data in the records, so we think its the same as it used to be.

    No other explanation will suffice….

  5. Jamie says:

    I’m pretty sure most scientists would question why the graphs only cover an 8 year period.

  6. Stuart says:

    A low R^2 value shows poor correlation. R^2 should approach 1 for strong correlation.

    A better method for the excel trend lines would be a 365 moving average, is there any chance the charts can be shown with a 365 day moving average? Thus removing the seasonality.

    • A C Osborn says:

      Correlation with what, they are just simple single weather data.
      The only real criticism over at NAPKT was that most of the weather stations were near the coast and were therefore kept more stable than in other areas.

  7. Elvis says:

    It is a 17 year period I think. That is an unusual number to choose, a prime number to boot. And starting at an El Nino year etc. But it might as well be a more normal round number, as Catto has chosen to plot data in such a way (absolute data in huge ranges compared to trends) that even if there are trends in the British climate over the period chosen he guarantees not too see them. If he actually wanted to look for trends then he would learn something about statistics and data analysis. As it stands, Catto’s graphs are an anti-advertisement for the “skills” offered by his company, Weatherology.

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